The US National Weather Service reported sea-surface temperatures 2.5°C above average along the equator on 26 October; all 27 climate models forecast a very strong El Niño, and some project more than 3.5°C.
The first cyclonic storm of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean formed over the Bay of Bengal on 26 October; its remnants could carry heavy rain towards Uttar Pradesh and Nepal if they meet a western disturbance.
EnvironmentMet office records show 78 of the 97 October cyclones in the Bay of Bengal since 1891 went to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha and 19 to Bangladesh; forecasters say the likely Cyclone Arnab is unlikely to come ashore here, but heavy rain may reach several northern and western divisions after Tuesday.
EnvironmentThe Met Office says the southwest monsoon may start leaving Bangladesh within the extended five-day outlook, with light to moderate rain and gusty winds in a few places in several divisions meanwhile.
EnvironmentThe month averaged 15.22C, 1.62C above the 1991-2020 normal and just behind 2021, and was also wetter and duller than average in most places.
EnvironmentNutrien Ag Solutions' Eric Snodgrass says an El Nino that has already passed the 2015 record helped bring up to 30 inches of rain to parts of the Corn Belt in August and September, with a drier window and a warm northern winter ahead.
EnvironmentKolkata received 557.4 mm of rain this September, the fourth highest since 1900, and late monsoon rain cut India's seasonal deficit to 12.6 per cent.
CropsLate frosts, warm nights and wildfire smoke have cut yields across Idaho's potato crop, though growers and the state potato commission say quality is consistent.
EnvironmentHot, gusty northerlies pushed temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average, to the mid-to-high 30s; Adelaide had its second hottest September day on record.
EnvironmentA low over the north Andaman Sea near the Myanmar coast has become a depression; Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, Mongla and Payra seaports hoist distant cautionary signal No 1, and fishing boats are told not to venture into deep sea.
The Met Office says a low may form over the north Bay of Bengal within 48 hours, with light to moderate rain and gusty wind in all eight divisions and moderately heavy falls in parts of Chattogram division.
CropsNutrien Ag Solutions meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says the late-summer ridge is fading, a split jet stream could bring repeated rain to the Corn Belt and Prairies into early October, and El Niño may rank among the strongest on record.
EnvironmentModels point to the current El Niño exceeding the 1982-83 event, with central Pacific sea-surface anomalies possibly above 3.0 °C, yet the Bureau of Meteorology says a neutral-for-now Indian Ocean Dipole, warm seas around Australia and long-term warming will shape spring and summer as much; water st
