The El Niño forming in the central Pacific is already entering record territory, and climate models suggest it will keep strengthening for several more months, Capital Press reports. The US National Weather Service reported on 26 October that sea-surface temperatures were 2.5°C above average over 2.4 million square miles along the equator.
If that is sustained, this El Niño will beat the record of 2.3°C above average set between November 2015 and January 2016; records began in 1950. Some models project temperatures more than 3.5°C above normal, according to Columbia University's climate research institute, and all 27 models predict a very strong El Niño, at least 2°C above normal. It has already broken one record: sea-surface temperatures averaged 1.7°C above normal in July, August and September, against the previous record of 1.5°C for that period in 2015.
"We're in good shape to at least challenge the record, if not break it," said Oregon state climatologist Larry O'Neill. El Niños are rated by ocean temperatures, not impacts, but a very strong event tilts the odds towards a warm winter in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California, and shifts storms south, so forecasters expect heavy snow in northern California.
For the Pacific Northwest the outcome for farmers is uncertain. In mid-October the Climate Prediction Center called it a toss-up whether Oregon, Washington and Idaho would be wetter or drier than normal; warm temperatures with little rain and snow would mean water shortages in the 2027 irrigation season. It has since forecast at least a wet November for all three states and California, and South America's coastal waters were a record 4.4°C above average last week. O'Neill said the region has been historically wet when those waters are especially warm in an El Niño, but warned: "Now, we're in kind of uncharted territory."
The report was written by Don Jenkins.
Source: Capital Press
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