Most October cyclones in the Bay of Bengal end up on India's Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts. Bangladesh Meteorological Department data show that in the 135 years since 1891, 97 cyclones formed in October; 78 struck Andhra Pradesh and Odisha and the other 19 the Bangladesh coast, almost all of them in the south and south-west.
Recent storms fit the pattern. Cyclone Montha hit Andhra Pradesh on 28 October last year, and Dana hit Odisha on 25 October 2024. Sitrang came ashore at Bhola in October 2022. Most of the big November and December storms also struck the south: the catastrophic cyclone of 13 November 1970 over Bhola, Sidr in 2007 over Barguna and Bulbul in 2019 over Khulna.
Senior meteorologist Dr Abul Kalam Mallik of the met department said the system could become a depression on Saturday night and a deep depression on Sunday, then a cyclone after midnight on Sunday or on Monday morning. Noting that only 13 of the 64 cyclones formed in the bay in this season since 1971 reached Bangladesh, he said the upper-level westerly winds are not now placed to turn it north-east, so landfall in Bangladesh looks unlikely.
Former department director Samarendra Karmakar explained that a cyclone's track is largely set by an anticyclone 30,000 to 40,000 feet up. When that sits over Bangladesh or India's Bihar, storms turn towards Bangladesh; during Dana in 2024 it stayed put, so the storm held its course to Odisha. The India Meteorological Department's website also says the cyclone could strike the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday.
Rain will come even without the storm. Meteorologist A K M Nazmul Haque said Chattogram and the coast could get light rain on Monday and Tuesday, and after Tuesday the Rangpur, Dinajpur, Mymensingh and Khulna divisions could get moderate to heavy rain. Forecasting officer Dr Omar Faruk said rain would intensify once the cyclone moves inland as a land depression and heads north. If it forms, the cyclone will be named Arnab, a Bangladeshi name meaning ocean.
Aman rice is ripening in the north and west, and many fields are being readied for early potato and winter vegetables. The forecast of heavy rain after Tuesday therefore matters to farmers there, for timing the harvest and threshing of ripe paddy and for keeping water off low-lying land.
The report was written for Desh Rupantor from Chattogram by Bhuiyan Nazrul.
Photo: The Bay of Bengal depression of 23 October 2022 that became Cyclone Sitrang, NASA/Aqua-MODIS / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
Source: Desh Rupantor
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