Cyclone Arnab, the first cyclonic storm of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean, formed over the Bay of Bengal early on 26 October and could become a very severe cyclonic storm before reaching the coast of Andhra Pradesh on 28 October, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Down To Earth reports.
The system began as a low-pressure area over the east-central and south-east Bay of Bengal on 23 October, became a depression on 24 October and a deep depression on 25 October. At the IMD's latest update it was about 610 kilometres south-east of Gopalpur in Odisha, 650 kilometres east-south-east of Visakhapatnam and 730 kilometres east-south-east of Kakinada.
The IMD forecast that it would strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm, with winds of 89 to 117 kilometres an hour, by the evening of 26 October, and into a very severe cyclonic storm, with winds of 118 to 167 kilometres an hour, on 27 October. It is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam before noon on 28 October, with sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres an hour and gusts up to 140.
Another low-pressure area, which brought rain to parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, remained active over the south-west Bay of Bengal. Wind data show some interaction between the two systems, which could lead to a merger and further strengthening, the report says, and could even bring rapid intensification, a gain of 55 kilometres an hour in 24 hours seen in recent cyclones such as Biparjoy in 2023 and Tauktae in 2021.
After landfall the storm's remnants are projected to move north-west and then north towards Uttar Pradesh and Nepal, where an interaction with a western disturbance could bring intense rainfall. A deep depression that took a similar track at the end of September brought heavy rain and set off flash floods and landslides. The report was written by Akshit Sangomla.
Source: Down To Earth
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