South African farmers have entered the 2026/27 summer season better prepared for El Niño than before the devastating 2015/16 drought, but poor financial decisions could leave them facing years of recovery, economists warned at a round-table on El Niño preparedness in Pretoria on 12 October, Farmers Weekly South Africa reported.
Stakeholders at the meeting, convened by Wandile Sihlobo, the presidential envoy on agriculture and land, warned that hotter, drier conditions could arrive earlier than usual, with rainfall deteriorating late in the season. Free State, North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo were identified as most vulnerable. The country starts with better soil moisture, good grain stocks, fuller dams and better technology than in 2015/16. But Dr Simphiwe Ngqangweni of the National Agricultural Marketing Council noted that dams at about 90% help irrigated farms far more than rain-fed producers.
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB, said El Niño should be treated as a financial risk rather than a certain disaster. He advised farmers to draw up cash-flow budgets for a normal season, a weaker season and a severe drought, to spot shortfalls early. "Every hectare planted ties up cash, and every animal the veld can't support becomes a feed bill," he said, suggesting inputs go to the lands and livestock with the best potential rather than planting or feeding everything.
He warned against cutting costs blindly on fertiliser, maintenance or experienced staff, and said early signs of trouble include using overdrafts sooner than usual, rolling supplier accounts over and relying more on short-term credit. Farmers expecting repayment problems should go to their banks early with updated statements and realistic projections. "A good season always comes again. The goal is to make sure your business is still in a position to make the most of it when it does," he said. The story was reported by Lindi Botha.
Photo: Lotus Head / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Source: Farmers Weekly South Africa
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