Weather risk, freight costs and shifting import demand will shape the global rice market in 2027, experts told the first knowledge session of the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 in New Delhi, titled "Global Rice Demand and Supply Outlook 2027".
The session presentation indicated that South Asia and Africa would account for all growth in rice demand in 2026-27. Vietnam is emerging as the world's second-largest rice importer, the Philippines remains an important buyer, and El Niño-related production pressure could raise Indonesia's import needs.
Speakers stressed the need to watch El Niño through early 2027, because it could cause production losses over successive rice-growing cycles in Asia. Indonesia and Vietnam were named as the countries most exposed to weather-related production risk, while India and the Philippines could be affected through their rabi and second-crop harvests.
Dev Garg, vice president of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), said international freight costs largely decide how competitive Indian rice is abroad. He said prices of Indian 5 percent broken rice could rise by around $60 a tonne, while cautioning that such increases may not last. Asked about the effect of war on rice prices, he said it would depend on freight costs and market conditions.
In an audience poll on the scenario most likely to shape the 2027 market, the bullish scenario was the most chosen. Speakers said the direction of prices would still depend on how production, consumption, stocks and trade needs balance out over the coming months.
Photo: CocoyAguilar / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Source: AgroSpectrum
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