Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell this week to their lowest in 11 weeks, as slower Chinese purchases outweighed a US harvest running ahead of normal. The most actively traded contract lost 0.66 per cent to $12.06 a bushel. Corn held steady at $4.42 and a half.
The drop came despite USDA confirming private sales of 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. China has kept buying since trade talks with Washington produced a pledge to take more US farm goods, but the pace has eased.
US supply is ample. USDA put the soybean harvest at 88 per cent complete, against a five-year average of 84 per cent, with corn at 74 per cent, and it has forecast a record large soybean crop. With most of the crop now in the bin, growers and grain handlers are deciding about storage and marketing, and a record crop with softer pull from China points to plentiful stocks going into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Analysts also point to competition from South America. Johnny Xiang, founder of the consultancy AgRadar, said the recent fall of Brazil's real against the dollar and high US freight rates have made Brazilian soybeans more competitive against US supply, just as South American farmers prepare to plant. He also named the slowdown in Chinese buying as a direct weight on US prices.
Soybeans have been the most visible beneficiary of the US-China pledge. A review of Chinese customs data found that purchases of other US farm goods are on track for their lowest level in seven years, despite the wider commitment to buy billions of dollars of American farm products. Sorghum, pork and dairy have not seen a comparable rebound, which suggests that Chinese demand is concentrated where its crushing industry still relies on imported supply.
Photo: Judd McCullum / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0), a combine unloading harvested soybeans in Illinois
Source: Global Agriculture
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