CropsFarmers sold hard into the rally, leaving elevators owning close to half of local corn and soybeans; a $1 futures rise could mean about $9.6 billion in margin calls.
November soybean futures have gained nearly $1.50 since mid-August, and market adviser Naomi Blohm says the next move hangs on Xi Jinping's US visit, Brazil's planting weather, record fund positions and the 30 September quarterly stocks report.
USDA's 11 September report cut 2026-27 ending stocks to 1.57 billion bushels, an 18% fall, leaving about 35 days of supply; adviser Jon Scheve sees longer-term upside but tells farmers to sell any harvest corn they cannot store.
In the week to 10 September China took about 12.1 million bushels, nearly half the soybean total; corn inspections eased to 60.1 million bushels led by Mexico, South Korea and Japan, and wheat improved to 16.8 million but stayed well below last year's 27.9 million.
Timely rain made 'pretty good crops' across the region, says Almira grower Mike Carstensen, US Wheat Associates vice chair; early loads of soft white below 9% protein drew dockages of up to 50 cents a bushel until the export trade found buyers, and prices still fall a little short of costs.
December corn peaked just under $5.45 on report day and November soybeans at $13.3525 before closing lower; with August inflation at 3.4%, futures markets expect the Federal Reserve to lift its target to 3.75-4%.
Corn ending stocks fall to 1.567 billion bushels and the farm price rises 30 cents to $4.80; soybean prices dropped double digits on the day even as USDA raised its season-average forecast to $12; wheat was unchanged at 717 million bushels of stocks.
The September WASDE lowers the 2026/27 US corn yield by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 an acre and production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion, trims corn ending stocks to 1.6 billion, raises soybean output to 4.5 billion bushels with exports up 25 million, and leaves wheat unchanged.
