Soybean futures for November 2026 delivery have climbed nearly $1.50 a bushel since the middle of August on worries about the US crop and strong domestic demand, but the September USDA supply and demand report has put in a short-term top, writes market analyst Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a Farm Progress column.

The report raised the national yield estimate a fraction to 52.8 bushels an acre and total production to nearly 4.54 billion bushels. Crush was left at 2.78 billion bushels, exports were nudged up to almost 1.69 billion, and ending stocks came down to 310 million bushels from 320 million in August. Because the numbers matched expectations, Blohm says, traders took profits and futures posted a bearish key reversal, with support at $13 and resistance at $13.35.

A 310 million-bushel carryout is not bearish by historical standards, she argues, and demand remains strong, which should keep prices supported even as harvest pressure caps rallies in the near term.

The larger question is South America. USDA puts Brazil's 2026-27 crop at 186 million tonnes; Brazil's own forecasting agency Conab is slightly lower at 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares, an area 1.4% larger than last season. Brazil is expected to export 118 million tonnes, mostly to China. A production hiccup there would give futures reason to rally; a normal season would leave global ending stocks, forecast at 124.02 million tonnes, looking comfortable, though the stocks-to-use ratio is trending lower.

Blohm lists four things to watch: whether China books more US soybeans ahead of President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, or whether a last-minute dispute cancels the meeting; whether funds holding an estimated record long position take profits before the end of the third quarter; the USDA quarterly stocks report due on 30 September; and South American weather every day from now until March.

Her conclusion is that there is no way to outguess the market. A quiet, cautious stretch may be ahead in the short term, or a strong rally into 2027 if Brazil's weather fails. Either way, she says, growers need a strategy rather than a forecast.

Source: Farm Progress