The US Department of Agriculture has cut its forecast of this year's corn crop and nudged up soybeans in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released on 11 September. The report broadly matched what traders expected, and grain prices did not rally on it.

Corn production for 2026/27 is now forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, 213 million below August, on a yield of 178.5 bushels an acre, down 2.2 bushels, and a fractionally smaller harvested area of 88.5 million acres. USDA also lowered total use by 150 million bushels to 16.2 billion, all of it in feed and residual, now 6 billion, while holding exports at 3.3 billion "reflecting expectations of steady demand." Ending stocks were cut 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion, not as low as the trade average.

Soybean production is put at 4.5 billion bushels, 16 million higher, on a yield of 52.8 bushels an acre, up 0.1, and 0.1 million more harvested acres. The crush is unchanged but exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, so ending stocks fall 10 million to 310 million bushels. Wheat supply and use are unchanged in total, with white wheat exports raised 20 million bushels and hard red winter and hard red spring lowered 15 million and 5 million.

For the old crop, USDA pegged 2025/26 corn ending stocks below the trade expectation and left soybeans steady. World 2026/27 corn stocks were lowered in line with expectations, soybean stocks were lowered but by less than expected, and wheat stocks were raised against expectations.

"USDA did not give us many surprises today," said Cory Bratland, hedge specialist at AgMarket.Net. Ending stocks for corn were getting smaller at home and abroad and US soybean supply remained tight, he said, but "to keep a bull market going, we need to keep feeding it bullish information."

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing, said the report was supportive for grains in the big picture but much of it had been priced in over the previous two weeks, which was why soybeans closed down 28 cents, wheat down 17 cents and corn up 1 cent on the day. From here, she said, the world would be watching South American weather with intensity, because it now needs an abundant crop there. Trade expectations were sourced from Dow Jones. Reporting by Cassidy Walter.

Source: Successful Farming