A low-pressure area may form over the north Andaman Sea and the adjoining region at the start of the Bengali month of Ashwin, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department says. Forecasters say it could intensify step by step into a depression, a deep depression and, given favourable conditions, a cyclone. Its most likely track is toward Odisha in India, but under its influence rainfall over Bangladesh may increase after 23 September.

Md. Omar Faruq, a meteorologist at the department, said on Friday that the low may form over the north Andaman Sea by Saturday or Sunday and may then deepen into a depression, but that its track and strength cannot yet be stated with certainty.

Friday's forecast said the extension of the monsoon axis runs through Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and central Bangladesh to Assam, with one extension reaching the north Bay of Bengal. The monsoon is less active over Bangladesh and weak over the north Bay. On Saturday, light to moderate rain or thundershowers with gusty wind are possible at a few places in Rangpur and Chattogram divisions and at one or two places in Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Dhaka, Khulna, Barishal and Sylhet divisions. Temperatures should stay much the same, but the rain trend may increase over the next five days.

Indian media, citing the India Meteorological Department, report that a cyclonic circulation has formed over the north Andaman Sea near the coast of Thailand. It may become a depression by Saturday evening and a deep depression by 21 or 22 September, then move toward the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha. A heavy-rain warning is in force for coastal Andhra Pradesh from Saturday to Monday, and rain is possible in Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal. Several districts of West Bengal are under a yellow alert for thundershowers with gusts of 30 to 40 kilometres an hour.

Although several weather models point to a cyclone, the India Meteorological Department has so far forecast only a depression, so whether the cyclone will form at all is not yet certain.

If it does, it will be named Arnab, a word meaning sea. The name is one of those proposed by Bangladesh on the list approved by the World Meteorological Organization and the regional committee for cyclones of the north Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Names are not chosen for a storm's track or damage; they are taken in order from the pre-set list.

Meanwhile, a haze resembling fog has been seen in various parts of the country over the past two days. Omar Faruq says such haze can appear briefly after a spell of rain has ended and is likely to clear within a day or two. For growers with aman paddy in the field and early winter vegetables in the ground, the prospect of heavier rain next week is one to plan around.

Based on a report by a Samakal staff correspondent.

Source: Samakal