The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a low-pressure area to form over the southeast and east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October, with a high chance of intensifying into a depression by 25 October and possibly strengthening into a cyclonic system after that, according to its extended-range outlook as reported by Down To Earth and the regional outlet Pragativadi.
The system is forecast to move west-northwest through 28 October, with gale-force winds likely over the west-central Bay from 26 October. The IMD has not confirmed that a cyclone will form or where it might make landfall, but it has issued graded alerts for coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Separately, a different system has led to orange alerts in 17 districts of Tamil Nadu and yellow alerts in nine more.
In Odisha, coastal and southern districts including Balasore, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Rayagada, Koraput, Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri are expected to stay mostly dry until 26 October, with light to moderate rain and thundershowers from 27 October and isolated falls of 64.5 to 115.5 millimetres. Fishers have been told to stay out of the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay from the evening of 23 October to 25 October, and out of the west-central and southwest Bay from 26 to 28 October.
The timing worries farmers because it falls in the kharif paddy harvest across Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Agromet advice issued with earlier Bay of Bengal alerts this season urged farmers to keep fields drained, protect harvested grain, fodder, fertiliser and equipment from rain and wind, avoid spraying pesticide or fertiliser just before thunderstorms, and move livestock to shelter during lightning and high winds.
Several districts are already waterlogged. Heavy rain during the monsoon's withdrawal left standing water across parts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj, Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri, regional reports say, so the soil there is saturated before any new system arrives.
Photo: Arpan Guha / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Source: Global Agriculture
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