American pork has become the country's leading meat export and is projected to stay there for the next decade, according to a Chart of Note from USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) built on USDA's long-term projections.

The volume of U.S. meat exports in the major categories is projected to grow through 2035. Rising incomes abroad and a projected weakening of the U.S. dollar are expected to lift foreign demand for American red meat and poultry.

In 2024, U.S. pork exports surpassed chicken exports for the first time since 1976, and ERS projects that lead to hold through 2035. Steady growth in pork production, driven by heavier slaughter weights, more pigs per litter and larger hog inventories, underpins the export growth.

Environmental policies in the European Union are expected to weigh on the region's pork production and slow the growth of EU exports, improving U.S. competitiveness in world markets.

U.S. pork exports are projected to increase 8.6 percent, from an expected 7.2 billion pounds in 2026 to 7.8 billion pounds by 2035. By 2029 they are expected to surpass the previous record of 7.3 billion pounds set in 2020, when China's import demand spiked at the height of its African swine fever epidemic.

For hog producers the projection describes a market where export demand grows faster than domestic consumption and where productivity gains in the barn translate directly into shipments abroad. The chart first appeared in the ERS Amber Waves article U.S. Pork Export Volumes Projected to Surpass Chicken in the Next Decade, in February 2024, and has been updated with the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2035, released in February 2026, and the April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. It was prepared by ERS economists Brian Williams, Erik Dohlman and Matthew Miller.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service