UK pigmeat production is set to rise by 4% this year to just over a million tonnes and then fall back next year, according to the revised Pork Outlook of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), reported by Pig World. High supply, out of step with demand, has helped drive the sector into a price trough, alongside collapsing EU pig prices.
Defra figures show production up 4.3% to 754,000 tonnes in the first nine months of the year, on a clean pig kill up 2.4% at 7.9 million head and heavier carcases. For the full year AHDB forecasts about 1.02 million tonnes, a kill up 2.7% at 10.71 million head and carcases averaging 92 kg. "The backlog of pigs that was expected to clear early at the start of the year instead persisted well into the summer," said AHDB livestock analyst Adam Chowdry.
For 2027, production is forecast to drop 3.7% to about 979,100 tonnes, mainly on a 3% smaller kill of 10.39 million head as producers respond to negative margins. The sharpest fall, 9.3%, is expected in the first quarter. Chowdry warned that around 10,000 uncontracted pigs a week may lack slaughter space late this year, which could rebuild a backlog into early 2027 or push cheap spot pigs onto the market.
AHDB puts the female breeding herd at about 331,000 head in June 2026, up 1.5% on a year earlier, and pigs per sow per year up 4% since 2024 thanks to larger litters and better piglet survival. It expects the herd to shrink to 328,000 by June 2027 and 323,000 by June 2028, stabilising in 2029 about 20% smaller than in 2020. The move to flexi-farrowing pens, which need more space, may also force some farms to keep fewer sows where new buildings cannot win planning approval.
Exports are forecast to rise 16% this year, led by Ireland and Japan, then fall 12% in 2027. Pigmeat demand is expected to slip 2% this year and 1% next, with processed pork struggling while pork mince sales are up 33.5%. Prices should stay under pressure into Christmas and "firm gradually" in 2027. "Decisions taken now about buildings, herd size and future investment will determine how readily the sector can respond when market conditions change," Chowdry said. The report was written by Pig World editor Alistair Driver.
Photo: Dr Neil Clifton / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Source: Pig World
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