The European Union will start 2027 with 18.8 million dairy cows in milk, 1% fewer than in 2026, and produce 0.3% less cow's milk, about 149 million tonnes, the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts, The Cattle Site reported. That would reverse the growth of 2025 and 2026.
Low profits and poor feed are behind the cut. FAS said weak profitability of milk production in 2026 and worries about feed quality led farmers to send dairy cows to slaughter, alongside environmental policies, the effect of animal diseases on herd fertility in Western Europe and the restructuring of cattle farming in Central and Eastern Europe. Because the losses fall mostly on smaller, less efficient farms while larger ones hold their herds, FAS expects future reductions to slow. Rising yields per cow, strong in Central and Eastern Europe, will not make up for the smaller herd.
Feed is the immediate problem. Prolonged heat and water shortages in western and central Europe stopped grass growth after a good start to the 2026 season, bringing it to a standstill in some regions, and the quality of maize for silage worsened considerably, the European Commission's crop monitoring found. Biomass in September was below average across much of western and central Europe even after rain returned, while north-eastern Europe fared better. Less grazing, less winter feed and smaller silage crops in the main milk-producing countries are expected to force herd reductions and lower milk output from late 2026 into early 2027.
This year still looks strong on paper. EU milk deliveries in 2026 are estimated at 149.5 million tonnes, up 1.5% on 2025, after a 3.5% rise in January to June driven by good on-farm feed, stable feed costs, investment in automation, and calving delayed by bluetongue in Western Europe. FAS expects that growth to slow as falling farm-gate prices, feed shortages and higher energy and fertiliser costs squeeze margins. Farmers also face national rules implementing EU environmental policy, disease outbreaks and a lack of successors, as young people leave milk production over heavy workloads and uncertain income; dairy farm numbers are expected to keep falling in many member states.
Prices have dropped sharply. EU farm-gate milk prices averaged a record €52.5 per 100kg in 2025, then fell from the third quarter of 2025 as European production climbed. In August 2026 processors paid €42.2 per 100kg, 0.5% more than in July but 21% less than a year earlier and 10% below the 2021-2025 average. In July, EU milk prices were 18% above New Zealand's and 29% above those in the United States.
Photo: European Commission, Lukasz Kobus / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0). Dairy cows in a barn on a European farm.
Source: The Cattle Site
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