Bangladesh may see four to six mild to moderate cold waves between November and January, two or three of which could turn severe, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department said in its long-range forecast. Overall, though, day and night temperatures may stay above normal.
Meteorologist Dr Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik said one or two mild cold waves could reach parts of Rajshahi, Rangpur and Khulna divisions in December. January carries a chance of moderate ones, and occasionally one or two severe spells with temperatures of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius.
He said an active El Nino will keep average temperatures somewhat higher across South Asia. Very severe cold waves will be far fewer and shorter, which is why the department expects a somewhat "warm" winter. How many cold waves come and how long they last remains uncertain.
Moderate to dense fog may form from late night to morning in places and along river basins. Dense fog can narrow the gap between day and night temperatures and make it feel colder. Two to four low-pressure systems may form in the Bay of Bengal, one or two of which could become cyclones.
Rainfall is likely to be normal over the three months. November could bring the most in Chattogram division, 35 to 40 millimetres, followed by 30 to 40 in Barishal, 15 to 25 in Dhaka, Sylhet and Khulna, 10 to 15 in Mymensingh and Rajshahi, and 4 to 8 in Rangpur. December and January will be drier still.
For farmers working through the rabi season, this is only a first indication. Dr Mallik pointed out that uncertainty in long-range forecasts is high and that the regular daily forecast should be followed as well.
Source: Banglanews24
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