El Nino has not yet reached its peak and its effects could last until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization has warned. La Nina could follow once the warm phase ends, but that is not yet a firm forecast, Ittefaq reports.
By the WMO's account, a weak La Nina that formed in late 2025 faded quickly in early 2026. By the middle of the year conditions had turned around completely and a strong El Nino had formed.
NOAA meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson said in an experimental forecast in October that the current El Nino may move towards neutral conditions in spring or early summer 2027. The further ahead the forecast looks, the greater the uncertainty.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of one natural climate cycle, which usually appears every three to seven years. NOAA calls the two together the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
During El Nino, the trade winds blowing east to west across the equatorial Pacific weaken, and warm water shifts east. During La Nina they grow stronger than normal and push warm water towards Asia and Australia, while cold, nutrient-rich water rises off the South American coast.
The switch between the two does not follow a fixed timetable. La Nina does not always follow El Nino, and one phase can last two years in a row. Scientists will have to watch how the Pacific changes as El Nino weakens.
Source: Ittefaq
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