US cattle herd slips to 86.2 million head as beef cows shrink

The United States had 86.2 million head of cattle and calves on its farms and ranches on 1 January 2026, slightly below the 86.5 million head counted a year earlier, according to the Cattle report that the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released in Washington on 30 January 2026. The fall was concentrated in the beef herd: beef cows numbered 27.6 million head, down 1 percent from a year earlier, and the 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent.

The dairy side moved the other way. Milk cows numbered 9.57 million head on 1 January, up 2 percent from the previous year. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in all feedlots totalled 13.8 million head, 3 percent below the 14.3 million head of 1 January 2025. NASS headed its report "January 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly" and its calf section "Calf Crop Down 2 Percent".

NASS publishes the Cattle report in January and July, with inventories as of 1 January and 1 July, and it counts the American herd class by class. The January edition also carries the calf crop of the year just ended. The figures below are those of the 30 January 2026 release, read in the report itself, set against what NASS and USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) had published before that date.

NASS divides the herd into cows that have calved, heifers, steers, bulls and young calves, and gives each class separately. For 1 January 2026 the report gave these national totals:

• All cattle and calves: 86.2 million head (86,155,300 in the detailed table), slightly below the 86.5 million head of 1 January 2025.
• All cows and heifers that have calved: 37.2 million head, slightly below the 37.3 million head a year earlier.
• Beef cows: 27.6 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago.
• Milk cows: 9.57 million head, up 2 percent from the previous year.
• All heifers weighing 500 pounds and over: 18.0 million head, 1 percent below the 18.1 million head of 1 January 2025.
• Steers weighing 500 pounds and over: 15.6 million head, down 1 percent.
• Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over: 2.01 million head, up slightly.
• Calves under 500 pounds: 13.3 million head, down slightly.

The heifer total is itself split three ways. Heifers being kept to replace beef cows numbered 4.71 million head, up 1 percent from a year earlier; heifers kept to replace milk cows numbered 3.90 million head, down slightly; and other heifers numbered 9.40 million head, 2 percent below a year earlier. Of the beef replacement heifers, NASS estimated that 2.96 million were expected to calve during 2026, and of the dairy replacements, 2.50 million.

The report also counted the combined total of calves under 500 pounds and of other heifers and steers over 500 pounds that were outside feedlots on 1 January. At 24.5 million head, that group was 1 percent above its level of a year earlier.

The 27.6 million beef cows counted on 1 January 2026 are the foundation of American beef production, because every steer and heifer that is later fattened and slaughtered begins as a calf born to one of them. The detailed table put the figure at 27,607,200 head, against 27,892,000 on 1 January 2025, which NASS expressed as 99 percent of the previous year's level.

ERS, USDA's economic research agency, describes the farms that keep these cows as cow-calf operations: they mainly maintain a herd of beef cows for raising calves, largely on pasture. According to ERS, most calves are born in the spring and are weaned at three to seven months of age. Citing the 2022 Census of Agriculture, ERS says the average beef cow herd in the country is about 47 head, while operations with 100 or more beef cows make up 10.5 percent of all beef operations and hold 60.5 percent of the beef cow inventory. The beef cow herd is therefore spread across a large number of small and mid-sized farms, with most of the cows on the larger ones.

Some states held their beef cow numbers in 2026 and others did not. Texas, the largest beef cow state, had 4,045,000 beef cows on 1 January 2026 against 4,075,000 a year earlier, 99 percent of the previous level. Oklahoma had 1,966,000 beef cows against 1,959,000, and Missouri 1,806,000 against 1,864,000, 97 percent of its 2025 level.

Beef replacement heifers are the young females that farmers hold back to join the breeding herd instead of selling them for beef. NASS counted 4.71 million such heifers on 1 January 2026, 101 percent of the 4.67 million of a year earlier, and 2.96 million of them were expected to calve during the year, compared with 2.92 million a year before.

The calf crop is the number of calves born during a calendar year. NASS estimated the 2025 calf crop at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from the 2024 calf crop, which the same report put at 33.4 million head after revision. The detailed table gave 32,895,600 calves for 2025 and 33,416,500 for 2024.

Most American calves are born in the first half of the year. NASS estimated that 24.2 million calves were born between 1 January and 30 June 2025, down 2 percent from the first half of 2024, and 8.70 million between 1 July and 31 December 2025, which was 26 percent of the year's total. The table gave the first half's share as 73.6 percent in both 2024 and 2025.

The calves born in 2025 are the animals that later pass through the stocker programmes and feedlots described below. Texas, the largest calf-producing state, had a 2025 calf crop of 4.25 million head, 98 percent of its 2024 crop of 4.35 million; Kansas had 1.23 million calves, 95 percent of the previous year's 1.30 million; and Nebraska 1.50 million, 99 percent of the previous year.

Cattle on feed, in NASS's definition, are steers and heifers fed a ration of grain, silage, hay or protein supplement for the slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass grading Select or better. The count excludes cattle that are only being "backgrounded" for later sale as feeders or for placement in another feedlot, and cattle on feed are included within the class totals above.

For all feedlots, the report put cattle on feed at 13.8 million head on 1 January 2026, down 3 percent from 14.3 million head a year earlier. Feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head held 82.7 percent of all cattle on feed, up slightly from the previous year. Among the states, Nebraska had 2.80 million head on feed, 104 percent of a year earlier; Texas 2.54 million, 91 percent; Kansas 2.48 million, 99 percent; Iowa 1.18 million, 98 percent; and Colorado 920,000, 85 percent of its January 2025 level.

A week earlier, on 23 January 2026, NASS's monthly Cattle on Feed report had already shown the same direction for the larger feedlots. It counted 11.5 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head on 1 January 2026, 3 percent below a year earlier. Steers and steer calves accounted for 7.02 million head, 61 percent of that inventory, and heifers and heifer calves for 4.44 million head, both down 3 percent. Placements in those feedlots during December 2025 totalled 1.55 million head, 5 percent below December 2024, while marketings of fed cattle in December came to 1.77 million head, 2 percent above a year earlier. Other disappearance during December totalled 58,000 head, 2 percent below a year earlier.

ERS explains how cattle reach the feedlot. After weaning, calves may go into a stocker programme in which they graze on grass for three to four months, or be backgrounded for 90 to 120 days in pens or lots on dry forage, silage and grain. In the feedlot itself, ERS says time on feed can range from 90 to 300 days. Feeding is concentrated in a small number of large yards: ERS reports that feedlots with 1,000 or more head market about 88 percent of fed cattle, according to the 2022 Census of Agriculture.

NASS also counted cattle grazing on small grain pasture. It put 1.73 million head on such pasture in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas together on 1 January 2026, 112 percent of the 1.55 million head a year earlier.

Milk cows are counted in the same report as beef cows. On 1 January 2026 NASS put the national milk cow herd at 9.57 million head (9,568,300 in the table), up 2 percent from 9.38 million head on 1 January 2025. Heifers kept to replace milk cows numbered 3.90 million head, down slightly, and 2.50 million of them were expected to calve during 2026.

The largest dairy states in the report were California, with 1.71 million milk cows on 1 January in both years, and Wisconsin, with 1,285,000 against 1,265,000 a year earlier. Texas had 705,000 milk cows against 675,000, 104 percent of the previous year's level. Idaho's total cows and heifers that had calved rose to 1.16 million from 1.13 million.

Because dairy and beef cows are added together in the cow total, the rise in milk cows partly offset the fall in beef cows. That is why all cows and heifers that have calved came to 37.2 million head, only slightly below the 37.3 million of a year earlier, even though beef cows fell from 27,892,000 to 27,607,200 head in the detailed table.

The report gives the inventory for each state. On 1 January 2026 the largest cattle states by all cattle and calves were:

• Texas: 12.1 million head, unchanged from a year earlier.
• Nebraska: 6.15 million head, 102 percent of a year earlier.
• Kansas: 5.85 million head, 98 percent.
• California: 5.05 million head, unchanged.
• Oklahoma: 4.65 million head, 101 percent.
• Missouri: 3.85 million head, 97 percent.
• South Dakota: 3.55 million head, 101 percent.
• Iowa: 3.45 million head, 99 percent.
• Wisconsin: 3.25 million head, unchanged.

ERS notes that cattle feeding operations are concentrated in the Great Plains, the region that includes Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. In California and Wisconsin, by contrast, most cows are milk cows: on 1 January 2026 California had 1,710,000 milk cows and 640,000 beef cows, and Wisconsin 1,285,000 milk cows and 275,000 beef cows.

Not every state is shown in full. The January 2025 Cattle report noted that, following changes after the 2022 Census of Agriculture, a reduced number of data items would be published from January 2025 for 19 states: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont and West Virginia. Estimates of all cattle and calves, all cows and the calf crop are still published for every state.

Cattle numbers in the United States rise and fall in long waves. ERS describes the cattle cycle as a period of 8 to 12 years in which the national herd expands and then contracts, driven by cattle prices, the cost of inputs such as feed, the time it takes to breed and raise animals, and the weather.

According to ERS, a seven-year liquidation of the national herd ended on 1 January 2014 at 88.2 million cattle and calves, after which the herd grew to a peak of 94.7 million head in 2019. By 1 January 2025 it stood at 86.7 million head, which ERS described as 8 percent below that peak.

The two previous January reports trace the decline that led into 2026. The report released on 31 January 2024 put the herd at 87.2 million head on 1 January 2024, 2 percent below the 88.8 million of a year earlier, with beef cows at 28.2 million, down 2 percent, and a 2023 calf crop of 33.6 million, also down 2 percent. The report released on 31 January 2025 put the 1 January 2025 herd at 86.7 million head, 1 percent below 87.2 million, with beef cows at 27.9 million, down 1 percent, milk cows at 9.35 million, and a 2024 calf crop of 33.5 million, down slightly.

In the January 2026 report NASS revised those 2025 figures in the light of slaughter, trade and new survey data: the 1 January 2025 all cattle and calves estimate was lowered by 0.2 percent, to the 86.5 million head used for comparison above, and the 2024 calf crop by 0.3 percent. The same report gave the herd on 1 July 2025 as 93.9 million head, including 28.55 million beef cows and 25.6 million calves under 500 pounds. NASS added that the July 2024 Cattle report was not conducted because of reduced funding.

The size of the herd matters well beyond the farm. ERS says cattle production is the most important U.S. agricultural industry: in 2024 it represented about 22 percent of the $515 billion in total cash receipts for agricultural commodities. The country is also a large trader in beef. ERS reported that U.S. beef exports fell to 3.003 billion pounds in 2024, while beef imports set a record of 4.635 billion pounds. Mexico and Canada are the main suppliers of live cattle to the United States, and ERS noted that in 2025 USDA suspended imports of cattle from Mexico because of New World screwworm, a livestock pest.

NASS is the statistical agency of USDA. Its stated mission is to provide timely, accurate and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture, and besides its regular survey reports it conducts the Census of Agriculture every five years.

For the January 2026 Cattle report, a random sample of producers was surveyed so that every cattle producer, regardless of size, had a chance of being included, with large producers sampled more heavily than small ones. Data were collected from about 35,000 operators during the first half of January 2026 by mail, telephone, internet and face-to-face interviews, and 52 percent of the reports were usable. Whenever they answered, operators were asked to report their inventories as of 1 January, and their calf crop for the whole of 2025.

The estimates were set by NASS's Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations from the agency's regional field offices. National and state survey data were checked against each other and against the previous year's estimates using a balance sheet, which starts from the previous inventory, adds births and imports, and subtracts slaughter, exports and deaths. The report was approved on 30 January 2026, the day it was released.

NASS also tells readers how far the first January estimate has moved in the past. Over the previous 10 years, the root mean square error for the all cattle and calves estimate was 0.3 percent. In NASS's words, that means the chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 86.2 million head by more than 0.3 percent, and 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. Over those 10 years, changes between the first and latest estimates of all cattle and calves averaged 190,000 head and ranged from 0 to 620,000 head; the first estimate was above the latest five times and below it four times, which, NASS says, does not imply that the January estimate is likely to understate or overstate the final inventory.

Estimates for the previous year can be revised each time new figures are made, mainly on the basis of livestock slaughter, foreign trade and additional survey data, and are reviewed again once the five-yearly Census of Agriculture is available; after that, NASS says, no further revisions are made.

Photo: Preston Keres / USDA / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)

Sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (news release of 30 January 2026; Cattle reports of 30 January 2026, 31 January 2025 and 31 January 2024; Cattle on Feed report of 23 January 2026; NASS mission statement), USDA Economic Research Service (Cattle and Beef: Sector at a Glance)