October 2026 was the warmest October on record worldwide, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in its latest update, with the global average surface air temperature at 15.35C. That is 0.9C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.75C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
It was the third month in a row, after August and September, above 1.5C. The last time three consecutive months breached that threshold was February to April 2025.
On data up to October, C3S estimates that 2026 will end between 1.56C and 1.61C above pre-industrial levels, which would make it the second year after 2024 to pass 1.5C. It puts the chance of 2026 being the second-warmest year at 80 per cent, and of equalling or beating 2024 at 20 per cent. The four-year average for 2023-2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5C.
Sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95C, the highest for any October, passing the record set in October 2023. In the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific, used to measure El Nino, the monthly average hit an all-time high of 29.94C, an anomaly of 3.21C. Both values exceed the peaks of the very strong events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Rain matters as much as heat to anyone growing a crop, and October was uneven. Drier-than-average conditions covered eastern North America, the southern United States, parts of western and central-eastern Europe, western Russia, Siberia, Central Asia, southern China, South America and southern Africa. Alaska, northern Mexico, a large region of central Asia, parts of China and Korea, Chile, southern Argentina, southeastern Brazil, Madagascar and western and central Australia were wetter than average.
"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Photo: TOPEX satellite image of the 1997 El Nino / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
Source: Down To Earth
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