Global grain markets face considerable risk from El Nino, analysts at the International Grains Council (IGC) said at a briefing on 25 September, putting the chance of a "very strong" impact this year at 90%, with the peak expected in November. "El Nino does raise the risk [of crop losses], but does not affect each continent in the same way," said Nathan Kemp, IGC senior economist.
The IGC put world wheat production at 819m tonnes, down 3% on the year, with seven of the eight main producers reporting smaller crops because of dry weather and a shift in rotations towards more profitable oilseeds; closing stocks were raised 3m tonnes to 278m tonnes. Maize output is forecast 3% lower at 1.3bn tonnes, mainly on smaller crops in the US, Brazil and Argentina, and carryover stocks were cut by 4m tonnes to 289m tonnes, 20m tonnes less than a year earlier. Europe's drought brought low yields and some crop abandonment.
Tighter supply would normally support prices towards winter, yet Chicago wheat futures kept falling after the report, as uncertainty over possible peace deals in Ukraine and the Middle East weighed on the market. In the week to 21 September nearby Chicago wheat fell from the equivalent of £199.34 to £190.79 a tonne, £29.54 below its 3 September high. London wheat futures fell from £211.25 to £203.50 a tonne in the week to 28 September, and UK ex-farm feed wheat from £204 to £198.50 a tonne.
The falls came despite AHDB's final 2026 harvest estimate, which put UK winter wheat yields at 6.9t/ha after the summer drought, 11% below the five-year average; spring barley averaged 4.8t/ha, 17% below, and oats 4.6t/ha, down 14%. Many malting barley crops were downgraded to feed. "Average yields only tell part of the story," said AHDB lead analyst Helen Plant, pointing to big differences between farms.
Oilseeds are plentiful: the IGC estimates a record world soyabean crop of 440m tonnes, although stronger demand trimmed closing stocks by 2m tonnes to 73m tonnes. AHDB put UK rapeseed yields at 4t/ha, 9% above average, and the Farmers Weekly ex-farm rapeseed price stood at £449.40 a tonne on 30 September.
Photo: Graham Robson / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Source: Farmers Weekly
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