As the Russia-Ukraine war turns Black Sea ports and shipping lanes into battlegrounds, exports of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain are in doubt, and a lack of storage raises the risk of it rotting. At the same time, attacks and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting supplies of fuel, fertiliser and food. Citing a report in The National, Ajker Patrika says the two crises together are deepening food security fears from Europe to the Middle East.
According to Ambrey Analytics, the two sides attacked 317 commercial and other ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov between May and October this year, against 74 in the previous six months. Ukraine's agriculture ministry says grain exports to 30 October were 29 percent below the same point last season. In 2025-26 Ukraine exported 37.5 million tonnes of grain and pulses, with the Middle East and North Africa among its main markets.
Jean-Martin Bauer, director of food security and nutrition analysis at the UN World Food Programme (WFP), said about a third of the world's wheat trade depends on Russia and Ukraine. Instability in the Black Sea means Ukrainian farmers cannot sell their grain, so stocks pile up in their stores and prices fall. The Black Sea and Hormuz are two parts of one food system, he said: one essential for grain exports, the other for oil and fertiliser, so disruption on both raises the cost of producing, moving and buying food.
Lucie Berger, the European Union's ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, warned that by November more than 9 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain, oilseeds and related products may have nowhere to be stored. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says world wheat prices rose 6.3 percent in September, the highest in more than three years.
Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, relies on the Black Sea region for cheaper wheat. FAO says that although Egypt grew about 10 million tonnes of wheat in 2026, it may need to import another 13.5 million tonnes of wheat and 15.5 million tonnes of maize in 2026-27. UN agencies estimate that 47 percent of people in government-held areas of Yemen face acute food insecurity; in Lebanon vegetable prices rose more than 20 percent and bread 17 percent in a month; and more than 1.4 million people in Gaza are at risk of food crisis.
FAO has warned that if fertiliser shipments through Hormuz are disrupted, farm output could fall worldwide in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, with import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East most exposed. There is no overall shortage of food in the world, Bauer said; the problem is getting it at an affordable price to the people who need it.
Photo: National Police of Ukraine / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
Source: Ajker Patrika
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