Australia's domestic beef wholesale trade has had a hard year, but prices have begun to firm in the run-up to the summer grilling season and Christmas, wholesalers told Beef Central. China's return to the market for deliveries from January, stronger buying across Asia and steady volumes into the United States have lifted values over the past week or two.
The squeeze has come from both ends. A large wholesaler with a network across the eastern and southern states said margins had been tight for much of the year while operating costs rose sharply. Moving a pallet of boxed meat interstate, for example from Melbourne to Brisbane, now often costs about $600 instead of $400 because of fuel prices, an extra 30 cents a kilogram. Interest rate rises and record red-meat prices have kept consumers cautious.
Even so, good primals held reasonably firm through 2026, including through winter, when grilling cuts are usually hard to sell. Striploins and cube rolls that fell to about $17/kg at wholesale have recovered to $21-$22/kg, with better short-fed lines at $23-$24/kg. Rumps have risen from $14-$15/kg to $17/kg or more for good grain-fed steer meat, and are short because retailers are using them as a cheaper grilling special.
Trimmings, which make up about 30% of carcase value, remain the weak spot. One source said domestic trimmings were more than $1/kg below where they were a few months ago. Export trimmings that traded near $12/kg are now about $10/kg for 90CL and $9-$9.50/kg for 85CL, partly because of competition from Brazil, though that is about $1/kg better than three weeks ago as China comes back.
Wholesalers say there is less meat in cold storage than earlier in the year, partly because some southern processors are still working four-day weeks. Many consumers have switched from dining out to cooking a good piece of beef at home, which moved volume from food service to retail without cutting total sales much. Cheap pork, about $1/kg lower over nine months, has widened the gap between red and white meat.
The outlook to Christmas is cautiously positive. "I honestly think we will trade pretty well, despite the headwinds," the large wholesaler said, adding that there would be no record prices because shoppers push back. January and February remain the usual danger period for red-meat sales, and another interest rate rise before Christmas could hurt confidence.
The report was written by Jon Condon.
Photo: David Jackmanson / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Source: Beef Central
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