President Donald Trump said on 21 September that the United States is "working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus", writing on Truth Social that "the pricing would be substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers". The post signals an attempt to shift US potash buying away from Canada, which supplies about 85 percent of the potash American agriculture uses, along with about 10 percent of its nitrogen and about 20 percent of its sulphur, according to The Fertilizer Institute.

Belarus had readied a shipment earlier in the month. "Right now, an opportunity has arisen to load a vessel, and we will definitely finish loading tomorrow, so that they can take it," President Alexander Lukashenko said on 11 September. Belarus ranks among the world's top five potash producers; the US Geological Survey puts it fourth in 2024 at about 7 million tonnes a year.

How much could reach US farms is unclear. China buys upwards of 75 percent of Belarusian potash, leaving little spare for 2026. "Even if we wanted to supply (potash) to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes – everything is contracted," Lukashenko told the chairman of the State Customs Committee, Vladimir Orlovsky, on 21 September, according to the presidential press service.

Geopolitics analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera wrote on X that there is "a legitimate economic reason to explore it": another competitive supplier gives American buyers more choice and puts pressure on Canadian offers without Belarus having to replace Canada. But Belarus is landlocked and under European Union sanctions, so its product moves mainly through Russian ports. "A Belarusian offer could still win. Freight does not prove it cannot. But Trump's post gives no price basis, tonnage, delivery schedule or named buyer," Perera said. "For farmers, the promised saving becomes real when the fertilizer reaches them at a lower total cost."

The announcement moved fertiliser markets: shares of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries and Intrepid Potash all dipped after the post. For farmers in Bangladesh and South Asia, who buy potash on the same world market that Belarus, Russia and Canada dominate, where Belarusian tonnes are sold matters for the price of muriate of potash at home. Reporting by Diego Flammini.

Photo: Homoatrox / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Source: Farms.com