Syria's food system needs to be rebuilt as part of the country's path to peace, not as an afterthought to it, argue researchers at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT in an analysis published on 18 August 2026. Frans Schapendonk, Grazia Pacillo, Stephanie Speck and Martina Jaskolski set out six priority areas for agricultural recovery after more than a decade of conflict and climate strain.

The scale of the damage is laid out in the figures. Thirteen million people have been displaced and physical reconstruction is estimated at around USD 216 billion. Around 7.2 million Syrians face moderate to severe food insecurity as of 2026, according to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, and since 2016 the country has consistently ranked among the ten with the most people in acute food insecurity.

Farming has been hollowed out. Wheat production in 2024-2025 was 900,000 to 1.1 million tons, roughly a third of what the country grew before the war. Livestock holdings fell by about 50% over the conflict. Before the war, 25% of rural households spent more than half their income on food; by 2016 the share was 90%. Rebuilding the agricultural sector alone was estimated at USD 15 billion as of 2017.

Climate has compounded the war. The Euphrates-Tigris basin has been in extreme and exceptional drought since 2020, cutting hydropower, drinking water and both rainfed and irrigated farming, with widespread crop failures in Al-Hassakeh, Ar-Raqqa and Deir-ez Zor from irregular rain and damaged infrastructure.

The authors warn of trade-offs in recovery. Restoring irrigation to pre-war levels risks accelerating aquifer depletion; rapid mechanisation could cut demand for labour just as displaced people return to the countryside; and a shift from state-controlled to liberalised markets could push smallholders to the margins. "Food systems can either absorb pressure or amplify it," they write, arguing that resilient food systems function as peace infrastructure.

The Alliance's six priorities are rehabilitation of wheat and cereal systems; plural and resilient seed systems; restoration of soil, land and water; recovery of drylands, orchards and rangelands; nutrition-sensitive markets, cooperatives and agro-processing; and integrated support to areas where displaced people are returning. The tools it proposes include the Climate Security Observatory, a Compound Risk Framework, peace-responsive Climate Smart Villages, community seed banks and the Diversity for Restoration (D4R) tool.

The analysis links food and land recovery to peace through four channels: conflict prevention and early warning, social cohesion built through environmental cooperation, participatory governance of natural resources, and sustainable rural economies built on productive farms and viable livelihoods.

Source: CGIAR