El Niño is rapidly strengthening in the Pacific Ocean. New analysis by weather forecasting agencies says it could turn into a "super El Niño", one of the strongest in history, raising fears of record global temperatures, drought, floods, food crises and a major humanitarian disaster next year.

Scientists warn that 2027 could be the warmest year in the world's history.

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific are rising unusually fast. According to this week's data, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are about 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, which is considered one of the key signs that an El Niño is beginning.

El Niño is a natural climate process in which the Pacific becomes warmer than normal. It is expected to strengthen further in the coming months and could become "very strong", a so-called "super El Niño", by autumn.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its latest forecast that El Niño could formally begin within a month. The agency added that the chance of it becoming strong or very strong this winter has now reached two in three.

Meteorologists call the pace of warming in the tropical Pacific over the past few weeks unusual. In the words of NOAA meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson, if warming continues at the current rate it will be "a rare event", because moving within just a year from last winter's La Niña conditions, El Niño's opposite, cooler phase, to a potentially strong El Niño is very unusual.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) uses somewhat stricter criteria for declaring an El Niño: tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures must be at least 0.8 degrees Celsius above average. It also watches for changes in the trade winds over the western Pacific, which indicate that the warm ocean has begun to affect the atmosphere as well.

El Niño forecasts made in spring are usually not very reliable, but this time meteorologists are much more confident than ever before.

Although El Niño develops across the whole tropical Pacific, forecasters keep a particular eye on a region known as "Niño 3.4". They calculate how far the three-month average sea surface temperature there is above the long-term average. When the rise exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is called a strong or "super El Niño".

Forecasts from three agencies, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NOAA and Australia's BoM, show broadly similar results. ECMWF's latest forecast shows more than half of its models indicating a rise of more than 2.5 degrees Celsius by autumn. According to NOAA's Johnson, a rise beyond that would be a "historically strong event". BoM's forecast also shows a clear chance of a very strong El Niño developing towards the end of this year.

Some forecast data even suggest the rise could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, which would break the current record of 2.7 degrees Celsius set in 1877. Scientists say, however, that observation systems were limited in 1877, so some uncertainty remains about the data from that time.

That El Niño lasted about 18 months and brought a catastrophic global climate disaster, with severe drought and famine in Asia, Brazil and Africa and the deaths of lakhs of people. At the same time regions such as Peru suffered severe floods.

The last "very strong" El Niño was in 2015–16, when the average temperature rise in the Niño 3.4 region over November, December and January was 2.4 degrees Celsius.

Because extra heat builds up in the eastern Pacific, El Niño's biggest effect is on the global average temperature, which it usually raises by up to about 0.2 degrees Celsius.

Professor Liz Stephens, an expert in climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading in the UK, told the BBC that if this is a very strong El Niño, "we are probably going to see record global temperatures next year".

The 2023–24 El Niño was followed by a record warm year worldwide. Although the direct effects are greatest in the Pacific region, every El Niño is different, varying in strength and in how it affects global weather.

Floods are common in northern Peru and southern Ecuador during El Niño, and the risk of flooding can also rise in East Africa, Central Asia and the southern parts of North America. El Niño also suppresses Atlantic storms, and meteorologists are already indicating that this year's Atlantic hurricane season may be calmer than normal.

But Professor Stephens says that while this sounds good, for Central America it means much less rain and possible drought. The risk of drought and wildfires may also rise in Australia, Indonesia and parts of northern South America, threatening agricultural production and global food stocks.

Experts say the ongoing crisis in the Middle East is making the situation more complicated. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already disrupting fertiliser supplies and has pushed up fertiliser prices, which could hit farm output in the coming months, raising the risk of lower food supplies and higher prices.

Professor Stephens said the number of people already living in poverty is very high, and if El Niño-driven drought or floods cut crop production, food prices will rise further. "Especially if the crisis in the Middle East continues, we could be facing a potentially major humanitarian disaster this year," she said.

How much El Niño will directly affect the UK's weather is not yet certain, but climate scientists at the country's Met Office say El Niño years can raise the risk of colder winters in the UK. This report is based on the BBC.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.