The El Niño weather pattern is strengthening and is likely to become "very strong" in late 2026 and early 2027, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University said in its latest ENSO forecast, published on 21 September.

The Niño 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0°C in mid-September, and all 22 models the IRI surveyed, 13 dynamical and nine statistical, forecast very strong El Niño conditions through the 2026-27 winter. It puts the probability of El Niño at 100 percent through February 2027, falling to 61 percent by mid-2027, and says the event could rank among the strongest on record.

The IRI also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole to be strongly positive from September to December before easing in early 2027. For India, El Niño is usually linked to weaker monsoon rain, a warmer, drier winter and stress on crops and water, though a positive dipole can sometimes offset those effects. Experts told the Economic Times the forecast signals elevated climate risk but is not by itself a rainfall or crop-output forecast for India.

Photo: NASA / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

Source: Economic Times Agriculture/Food