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Timely rains lift world wheat prospects, but Russia and India still face risks

Better-than-expected rainfall has improved wheat and small-grain prospects in Australia, Ukraine, China, the US and parts of Europe, a global crop weather assessment finds; southern Russia's dryness and heat in India remain concerns.

Timely rains lift world wheat prospects, but Russia and India still face risks
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Prospects for wheat and other small grains have improved in several major growing regions after better-than-expected rainfall, easing earlier fears of shortages and food price inflation, according to a global crop weather assessment reported by Rural Voice.

Earlier forecasts had pointed to drought in Western Europe, Canada and the United States, and possible dryness in India, Australia, South Africa and parts of South America. Timely rain in several of these regions has since improved crop establishment, yield prospects and soil moisture.

Australia has seen one of the strongest turnarounds, with rain arriving at establishment and continuing through flowering and grain fill, though output is still expected below last year because farmers in Queensland and northern New South Wales planted less over El Nino fears. In Canada, better summer weather lifted yields above early projections after a wet, cold start. Western Europe has been dry since March, but most small-grain crops finished key stages before the worst heat, and late-October storms should help establish winter crops for 2026-27.

Rain has also helped crops in Ukraine, parts of the Balkans and China's wheat regions, while South Africa and Argentina expect good winter crops and rain in the US hard red winter wheat belt has improved emergence.

In India, late monsoon rain has raised topsoil moisture, improving prospects for wheat, barley and other winter crops, including rapeseed and millet in the north. But the assessment warns of heat and too little moisture during flowering and grain fill. Dryness in southern Russia still threatens yields, and excess late-season moisture is expected to hurt wheat quality in Brazil.

Photo: Yann / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Source: Rural Voice

Rural VoiceSource

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