With the monsoon in its final weeks, El Niño-driven drought conditions across more than half of India are raising concern about standing kharif crops and about soil moisture ahead of the winter planting season. About 53.2% of the country's landmass is experiencing some degree of drought, according to the India Drought Monitor developed by IIT Gandhinagar's Water and Climate Lab — up sharply from about 46% a week earlier.

Of the total area, 33.4% is under moderate drought or worse, 15.4% under severe drought or worse and 3.8% under extreme drought as of 9 September, with exceptional drought on 0.1%. India's cumulative south-west monsoon rainfall remains about 15% below normal, and by Tuesday 41% of the 734 districts monitored by the India Meteorological Department were rainfall-deficient and another 6% 'large deficient'.

The weather department had warned before the season that El Niño could develop and forecast seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average. 'This year has been a year of extremes, with several floods and droughts occurring,' said Vimal Mishra, dean of research and development at IIT Gandhinagar. The monitor combines several indicators rather than rainfall alone, drawing on IMD and Central Water Commission data, ISRO satellite products and NASA datasets.

The stress is sharpest in the farm states. Maharashtra has 85.2% of its area in some degree of drought and 43.1% in the two most severe categories — 25.9% extreme and 17.2% exceptional; 11.9% of Chhattisgarh, 5.2% of Madhya Pradesh and 4.9% of Uttar Pradesh are in extreme or exceptional drought. Goa (94.6%), Andhra Pradesh (90%), Telangana and Arunachal Pradesh (86.2%) and Sikkim (81.8%) have the largest shares under drought; Nagaland, Tripura, Odisha and Uttarakhand are among the least affected.

The emerging conditions add pressure on standing kharif crops, especially in rain-fed regions: the deficit has already raised concern over yields of tur, urad and soybean, and dry conditions have hit parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka.

Source: The Economic Times