El Nino, the climate event capable of reshaping weather systems across the world, has begun again. On 11 June the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared the start of a new El Nino. Scientists forecast that it could break all previous records, raising the risk of floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and food crises in different parts of the world.

Meteorologists say that if this El Nino is as strong as forecast, it could be the most severe in 75 years. Drought and floods could become especially severe in Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia.

Centuries ago, Peruvian fishermen noticed that every few years, around Christmas, anchovies suddenly declined in the equatorial Pacific. They called the event "El Nino", meaning "the Christ child".

El Nino is now considered a global climate cycle. It arises when the winds blowing over the equatorial Pacific change course, pushing sea-surface temperatures above normal and changing weather patterns around the world.

Its strength is measured by how much sea-surface temperatures rise. A rise of more than 2C above the long-term average is usually considered a strong El Nino.

International weather models forecast that for the rest of 2026 and early 2027, sea-surface temperatures could rise by more than 2.5C on average, and even above 3C. The strongest El Nino so far was in 1982-83, when temperatures rose by 2.5C. This one is feared to exceed that record.

Experts say El Nino itself is not caused by climate change, but combined with global warming its effects become more intense. After the strong El Nino of 1997-98, 1998 became the warmest year on record at the time, and after the 2015-16 El Nino, 2016 set a new record.

The current record holder is 2024, when the global average temperature was 1.6C above pre-industrial levels. Climate models suggest 2027 could be even warmer.

El Nino's effects are not the same everywhere: some places get drought, others heavy rain and floods.

On 9 June the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that people in southern Africa and the Sahel are most at risk. During the 2023-24 El Nino, southern Africa had its worst drought in more than a century.

According to the FAO, drought in Somalia could last until October, followed by heavy rain until December. Heavy rain after a long drought can make things worse, because dried-out soil does not easily absorb water, causing flash floods. Central America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia have also been warned of drought risk.

Experts say many regions are already suffering from war, food shortages and economic crises, and a strong El Nino could make things more complicated. Conflict around Iran and trade problems in the Strait of Hormuz have also strained fertiliser supplies, threatening farm output.

The European Commission has warned that countries such as Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad, Ecuador, Venezuela and Haiti could face humanitarian crises.

El Nino is one of the world's most influential climate events. The strong El Ninos of 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused severe droughts, floods and food crises in many regions, and scientists are warning of similar risks now. If the forecasts prove right, global temperatures could set a new record in 2027 and floods and droughts could worsen in many regions.

Experts say El Nino's effects cannot be fully prevented, but the damage can be reduced. Drought-tolerant seed, storing feed and water for livestock, and early disaster preparation can play an important role. The report draws on The Economist.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.