This summer's grilling season showed how unevenly the US animal protein markets are moving, according to the farm lender CoBank. Demand held up, but beef is limited by the number of cattle, pork has plenty of supply but needs stronger demand at home, and chicken is expanding into a market where buyers watch prices closely.
For beef, cattle availability remains one of the biggest constraints. Scarce supply continues to favour cow-calf producers but raises the buying risk for feeders, packers, retailers and restaurants. A small rise in replacement heifers points to the earliest stage of herd rebuilding, but CoBank says the rebuild remains slow because replacements are expensive, drought is a risk and few heifers are available.
Pork producers have gained from cheaper feed but depend heavily on a few export markets and on uneven demand. Before the grilling season the retail pork demand index fell to its lowest since 2020, and USDA forecasts suggest pork production will run ahead of consumption by a moderate margin through 2026. That gap showed this summer, when the pork cutout missed its usual seasonal rise.
Broiler companies have the clearest path to growth, provided demand can absorb the extra birds. Chicken remains well placed on value, convenience and menu flexibility, but CoBank says sales gains at quick-service restaurants look more modest than the headline growth suggests.
Dairy is being reshaped by beef. The US dairy herd grew by 200,000 cows over the past 12 months, led by Texas, Idaho, Kansas and South Dakota, taking cow numbers to a 34-year high. The driver is the price of beef-on-dairy calves: down from a peak of $2,000 in May, but still about $1,300 a calf against roughly $200 before 2023. The extra milk has pushed down milk revenue, so beef income has become the key profit driver at the margin for dairy farmers whose milk cheques only cover costs.
Photo: Preston Keres/USDA/FPAC / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
Source: The Cattle Site
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