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Updated 5 October 2026
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South Africa starts its summer crop season with good soil moisture but El Nino risk

Agbiz expects no major cut in South Africa's 4.6 million hectares of summer crops despite a strong El Nino and higher fertiliser and fuel costs, after a record maize harvest.

South Africa starts its summer crop season with good soil moisture but El Nino risk
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South Africa's 2026-27 summer crop season begins this month with better-than-normal soil moisture after an unusually long rainy season, but farmers face a strong El Nino and higher fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the US-Iran war, the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) wrote in its weekly analysis carried by FarmingPortal.

Farmers usually plant about 4.5 million hectares of summer crops; last season they planted 4.6 million, about 59% (2.7 million hectares) maize and 26% (1.2 million) soybeans. The Crop Estimates Committee will publish planting intentions on 27 October. Agbiz does not expect a major reduction for now and urges short-season cultivars rather than smaller plantings. The South African Weather Service said on 30 September that El Nino is strong and expected to strengthen to very strong, lasting at least to the end of the 2026-27 summer.

The season just ended was good: the committee's 29 September estimate put the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed crop at 21.7 million tonnes, up 6%, with a record maize harvest of about 17.5 million tonnes, and maize exports could reach about 3.0 million tonnes this marketing year against 2.4 million last season.

Photo: Lotus Head / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Source: FarmingPortal

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