There was a time when the northern regions were gripped by bone-chilling cold and thick fog as soon as the month of Agrahayan arrived. In this region especially, severe cold waves were a daily companion from early November. But in recent years climate change has altered that familiar winter. Even at the end of December, Rangpur is not seeing the harsh cold of the past; there is a winter feel, but the severity and length of the cold are falling at an alarming rate.

According to the weather office, the minimum temperature in the Rangpur region has risen by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius over the past few years. Sunshine makes the days feel quite warm, and although nights are somewhat cold, the chill does not last long. As a result, the region is no longer hit by long cold waves as before.

Experts say global climate change, rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the local loss of trees and the effects of industrialisation are responsible.

While milder winters are some relief for low-income people, this abnormal change in the seasons is raising health risks. There are also fears that farm production could suffer.

Mofizur Rahman, a Rangpur resident in his sixties, said: "We used to bring out our quilts from November, but now December is nearly over and the old biting cold is not there. This change in nature worries us."

Abdul Mannan, a seasonal seller of winter clothes in front of Surovi Udyan in the city, said he has sold warm clothes at this time of year for 20 years. Now he does not sell even half of what he used to. When the cold is milder and shorter, business is poor too.

Sohag Mia has worked for ten years at Janani Bastralaya on Haripatti Road in the town. He told Jago News that sales of quilts and mattresses are now not even half of what they were seven or eight years ago. Winter does come, but it comes late and does not last long.

Meteorologist Mostafizar Rahman, officer-in-charge of the Rangpur Meteorological Department, said many factors lie behind the milder winters. First is the effect of climate change, then the lack of cold winds. If the gap between day and night maximum and minimum temperatures narrows, it does not feel so cold. And if there is more sunshine at this time of year, daytime temperatures hardly fall, so it does not feel wintry.

All in all, he said, winter is "shifting". Winter used to set in from late October or early November, and the cold that December should bring is no longer there.

The meteorologist said climate change means the normal timing and intensity of winter are now largely absent. The negative effects fall on everyone from people to animals and birds. The disruption of normal life cycles is bringing various diseases, and crop production may also suffer. Altogether it is creating an adverse situation for us.

He said the severity and length of winter are falling because of climate change, dwindling water sources, dust and other particles in the air, lack of normal rainfall and more carbon dioxide in the air from growing traffic. Normally the minimum temperature at this time of year should be 10-12 degrees, but readings of 12 to 14.5 degrees Celsius are being recorded at around 9am, and daytime maximums of 21 to 24 degrees Celsius. Temperatures fall from dawn to 9am but rise as the day goes on.

Rangpur should get an average of 15 millimetres of rain in December, but there has been none, Mostafizar Rahman said. Nor has the year's expected rainfall come. Only July had more rain than normal; the other months had less than average. Rangpur should get 2,400 millimetres of rain a year, but this year it got 1,700 to 1,800 millimetres. Insufficient rain is another reason the cold is milder and shorter.

He said a mild to moderate cold wave is likely in the last week of December and early January. Two to three moderate and one to two severe cold waves may occur during January. During a severe cold wave, temperatures may fall to around 6 degrees Celsius in places. Dense fog is likely from midnight to morning, and in some areas it may last until noon, so the sun may appear very late.

According to the Rangpur Meteorological Department, at 9am on Tuesday (23 December) the minimum temperature was recorded at Rajarhat in Kurigram at 12 degrees Celsius and the maximum at Lalmonirhat at 13.6 degrees Celsius. Rangpur recorded 13.2, Thakurgaon 12.3, Tetulia in Panchagarh and Dinajpur 12.5, Gaibandha 13.5, Saidpur in Nilphamari 13 and Dimla in Nilphamari 13.5 degrees Celsius.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.