The Philippine Department of Agriculture has warned that El Nino could hit the country's farms hardest in the first half of 2027, raising its projected rice production losses from 700,000 metric tons to one million metric tons.
Spokesperson and Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum that the "real impact" would come next year, when a disrupted dry cropping season in Southeast Asia could cut output and send international rice prices higher. Losses could grow further depending on how severe and long the event is and on irrigation supplies.
Rainfed farms would suffer most, he said, because less rain limits the area that can be planted. Damage could also spread to corn, vegetables, livestock and fisheries.
El Nino had already caused 8.57 billion pesos in farm losses as of 21 October, affecting 288,058 farmers and 291,154 hectares, the department said. Production losses reached 220,307 metric tons, including 71,408 tons of rice and 132,290 tons of corn. It has provided 11.34 billion pesos in initial help, including production support and crop insurance.
De Mesa still called the country's position "favorable", saying existing supply should carry it through. Rice imports reached 4.8 million metric tons by October and may total 5.5 million to 5.8 million tons by December.
The department is leaning towards cheaper 25 percent broken rice, at around $370 to $380 a ton, against about $500 for 5 percent broken, to build a cushion while prices remain favourable.
Photo: IRRI Images / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)
Source: Global Agriculture
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