Michigan turkey growers are earning better returns this year after two hard years of flock losses to disease and thin margins, but an analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) suggests the recovery could turn into a price-cost squeeze in 2027.
Michigan farmers raised about 4.5 million turkeys in 2026, up 5% from 2025 and faster than the national rate. The state's industry is anchored by Michigan Turkey Producers, a farmer-owned cooperative in Grand Rapids that processes more than 5 million heavy tom turkeys a year for restaurants and retail deli counters.
Nationally, USDA's Turkeys Raised report puts the 2026 flock at 198.5 million birds, about 5 million or 3% more than in 2025 and the first annual expansion since 2023. Federally inspected turkey meat output is projected to rise 6% this year to 5.13 billion pounds.
Tight stocks pushed prices up. USDA's October Cold Storage report showed about 360 million pounds of turkey in storage at the end of September, 4.5% less than a year earlier and nearly 16% below 2024. The average wholesale price of frozen whole hens is projected at $1.76 a pound for 2026, up 30% on last year and nearly 88% above the 94-cent average of 2024. The St. Louis Federal Reserve's producer price index for slaughter turkeys points to grower returns about 21% higher, equal to $1.39 a pound.
The outlook for next year is less comfortable. USDA expects turkey meat production to grow for a second year in 2027, to 5.18 billion pounds, and wholesale hen prices to fall 18% to $1.45 a pound. "Production is growing again, and as demand has been strong, growers are seeing some better returns," said Bernt Nelson, an economist with the AFBF. "But this disease pressure and changes in higher feed costs have continued to create some uncertainty among turkey growers heading into '27."
Feed makes up about two-thirds of the cost of raising a market bird: a 38-pound tom needs 75 to 80 pounds of feed to reach market weight. USDA projects a season-average corn price of $4.70 a bushel, 13% above 2025, and soybean meal at $340 a ton, up 4.5%.
Disease is the other pressure. Highly pathogenic avian influenza claimed more than 250,000 commercial turkeys across the country in October alone, during the autumn migration of wild birds, a particular risk along Michigan's Great Lakes flyways. Avian metapneumovirus (aMPV), which slows weight gain and worsens feed conversion, affected an estimated 60% to 80% of US turkey flocks in 2024 and cut the industry's value by $2.88 billion, according to research by Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.
The analysis says growers can protect themselves by locking in feed costs, tightening biosecurity and keeping export markets open as supplies rebuild.
Photo: Irvin calicut / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Source: Michigan Ag Today
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