Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop, the smaller of the world's largest grower's two annual harvests, is now expected to yield between 300,000 and 350,000 tonnes for April to September 2027, against about 600,000 tonnes a year earlier, according to a survey of three pod counters and five exporters. Erratic October rains failed to support flowering and pod development.
The cut follows a weaker main crop already under way. Yves Brahima Kone, director of the Coffee and Cocoa Council, the industry regulator, put the October 2026 to March 2027 main crop at around 1.2 million tonnes, down from 1.5 million tonnes. Full-season output is now projected at 1.5 million to 1.6 million tonnes, 25% to 30% below the roughly 2.15 million tonnes that reached Ivorian ports last season. Port arrivals from 1 to 25 October were 122,453 tonnes, 43% lower than a year before.
Growers and exporters blame a strong El Nino, which left October rains too weak and irregular. A director at a European exporter in Abidjan said the rains came but were not strong enough, and the heat that followed was intense. The trade is now watching the Harmattan, the dry Saharan wind of December and January that threatens flowers and young pods.
The government has kept the farmgate price for the 2026/27 main crop at 1,200 CFA francs, about $2.12, a kilogram, the level set in March when it was cut from a record 2,800 CFA francs.
Ghana, the second largest producer, has started just as weakly. The Ghana Cocoa Board told growers in July that output would fall by at least 16% from the previous season's 771,000 tonnes, citing El Nino and heavy rain in May and June, and fertiliser that normally reaches farmers between March and May did not arrive until August. Joseph Agbeko, a cocoa farmer, said he had harvested five bags so far this season against 31 bags, about two tonnes, at the same point last year.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency has confirmed a strong El Nino and warned of possible long dry spells, so a recovery by March depends on the coming rains and on a mild Harmattan.
Photo: Milequem Diarassouba / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Source: Global Agriculture
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