China, the world's biggest soybean buyer, imported 7.35 million metric tons of soybeans in October, the lowest for the month since 2023, The Poultry Site reports, citing customs data released on Tuesday and analysts quoted by Reuters. The figure was 22.5% below the record 9.48 million tons of October last year and 38% below September.
It was also well short of the roughly 9.5 million tons a month analysts had expected for the fourth quarter. High stocks at crushing plants, negative crushing margins and low pork prices, which hold back demand for soymeal feed, all reduced buying.
Timing played a part. "In October, South American old-crop supplies were running out while bulk shipments of new-crop US soybeans had yet to begin," said Liu Jinlu, an agriculture researcher at Beijing-based Guoyan Futures. High inventories and weak margins also slowed purchases and the scheduling of shipments, she said, which cut arrivals sharply.
Whether imports recover in November and December will depend on China-US trade relations and better crushing margins, Liu said. She named the risks as weather disruptions in the US, slower export shipments and uncertain planting weather in South America. From January to October, China's soybean arrivals totalled 93.48 million tons, 2.3% less than a year earlier.
Private crushers face a costly squeeze in the fourth quarter, as stocks tighten in Brazil, the top exporter, and tariffs keep most US cargoes out of reach.
Feed demand may weaken further. Analysts expect China's pig herd to shrink in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 as Beijing tries to stabilise an oversupplied market. The breeding sow inventory stood at 36.02 million at the end of September, down 10.7% from three months earlier, the statistics bureau said in late October. For soybean growers in Brazil and the US, the world's largest buyer is taking less for now.
Photo: H. Zell / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Source: The Poultry Site
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