Rising world prices for food, energy and fertiliser could put fresh pressure on Bangladesh's import-dependent economy. Citing the World Bank's recently published Commodity Markets Outlook, News Bangla 24 reports that overall commodity prices could rise 23 per cent in 2026, driven by conflict in the Middle East, disrupted energy supplies, obstacles to grain shipping and weather risks linked to El Nino. Overall prices could then fall 7 per cent in 2027.
The World Bank projects international food prices rising about 10 per cent in 2026 and a further 7 per cent in 2027, about 18 per cent over the two years. A strong El Nino threatens harvests in several regions, and rice production could fall for the first time in a decade. Disruption to grain shipments through the Black Sea and bad weather in Europe and elsewhere could also squeeze the wheat market. In October the world food price index stood 12 per cent above its level a year earlier.
For farmers the key figure is fertiliser. The report expects world fertiliser prices to rise 14 per cent in 2026. Urea climbed quickly early in the year before easing somewhat, and fertiliser prices could return to 2025 levels in 2027. Dearer energy and fertiliser raise the cost of farming, transport and factory work, which in Bangladesh, reliant on imported fuel and farm inputs, can feed through to production costs and inflation.
Energy prices are forecast to rise 32 per cent in 2026, ending three straight years of decline. Brent crude could average US$91 a barrel this year, up from US$69 in 2025, before easing to US$79 in 2027. Global oil supply could fall 5.2 per cent in 2026, the biggest drop in more than four decades apart from the 2020 pandemic slump.
The bank also set out a worse case. If the Middle East conflict escalates, damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues, and attacks on Black Sea grain shipping coincide with a severe El Nino, Brent could average US$105 a barrel in 2027 and food prices could run 12 per cent above the baseline forecast, beyond their 2022 peak. Low-income countries would be hit hardest.
Global markets are facing several big shocks at once, said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of its Prospects Group. Protecting the poorest and supporting debt-strained low-income countries should now be the priority, he said. The bank has the capacity to provide US$50 to 60 billion under existing arrangements, including US$25 billion for front-loaded financing, which could support social protection, government finances and working capital for businesses and agriculture. The report is from the business desk of News Bangla 24.
Photo: Michael Trolove / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Source: News Bangla 24
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