USDA expects US food inflation to stay moderate in 2026 but uneven across the grocery basket. Its Economic Research Service forecasts all food prices rising 2.9 percent this year, close to the 20-year average of 3.0 percent, with food-at-home prices up 2.4 percent and food-away-from-home prices up 3.5 percent.

Through August, all food prices were 2.7 percent higher than a year earlier, grocery prices 2.2 percent and restaurant prices 3.4 percent. Beef and veal, fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, and seafood are forecast to rise faster than food prices overall, while egg prices are expected to fall sharply.

For 2027, USDA projects all food inflation of 2.0 percent, grocery prices up 1.8 percent and restaurant prices up 2.6 percent, though the forecast ranges are wide. The gap between grocery and restaurant inflation matters to agricultural markets, All Ag News notes, because the two channels use different products and distribution and can shift how consumers split their food spending.

Photo: Martinpulido / Wikimedia Commons (CC0)

Source: All Ag News