The US sunflower crop has been rated good to excellent for most of the season across the Northern Plains and should yield above trend if the autumn stays normal and an early freeze holds off, writes John Sandbakken, executive director of the National Sunflower Association. The exception is the drought-affected High Plains, where yields will suffer. Most analysts expect the national yield at or a little above the five-year average.

USDA's first outlook for the 2026-27 marketing year, issued in July, put beginning stocks at 324 million pounds and the initial all-type yield at 1,775 pounds an acre, below last year's 1,863 but above the five-year average of 1,721. Oil-type harvested acreage is expected up 3 per cent on the year and non-oil acreage up 25 per cent.

Total seed production was pegged at 2.31 billion pounds, slightly under 2025. Despite the extra oil-type acres, crush was cut by 40 million pounds to 952 million on the slightly smaller crop, while the other-use category, non-oil use and residual, rose 82 million pounds to 2.07 billion. Ending stocks are forecast at 359 million pounds, 11 per cent above 2025-26 but well below the five-year average. USDA updates its sunflower yield and production estimates in October.

Globally, USDA raised 2026-27 sunflower seed production to 62.6 million tonnes on a bigger Russian crop, trimmed Ukraine because farmers planted fewer sunflowers than expected, and lowered the European Union on a weaker yield forecast after heat and drought in France. World seed ending stocks could rise 45 per cent, most of it in Russia.

That larger supply lifts the forecast 2026-27 global crush to 55.8 million tonnes, 10 per cent higher, and sunflower oil output to 23.6 million tonnes, up 12 per cent. Yet global sunflower oil stocks are projected at only 1.46 million tonnes at the end of September 2027, a stocks-to-use ratio of 7 per cent, which Sandbakken calls good news for prices going into the new marketing year.

Growers are cleaning out bins ahead of harvest and deliveries to crush plants are rising. The EU and Ukraine, both large exporters of sunflower oil, bear watching, he adds: any shortfall in their seed and oil output could move US sunflower prices. John Sandbakken writes for Farm Progress.

Photo: Bruce Fritz, US Department of Agriculture / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

Source: Farm Progress