The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has forecast relief in global food markets in 2026. By its reckoning, the food and beverage price index peaked in early 2025 and has been falling steadily since, a trend that will continue into the new year. Good harvests worldwide and relatively stable weather are seen as the main reasons.
The forecast says rice prices will keep falling in 2026. The downward trend began in 2024, when India lifted its ban on non-basmati rice exports. Even in Japan, where rice prices have recently been high, about 40 percent of farmers expect to sell their rice at lower prices in 2026.
Beverage prices are also expected to fall significantly. The price of arabica coffee beans in particular could drop by as much as a quarter, according to the forecast.
Neutral weather, but labour and aid worries
Relatively neutral weather lies behind the good harvests. Neither El Nino nor La Nina is expected to cause major disruption in the new year. Farmers in the United States, however, may face a different kind of challenge: a crackdown on illegal immigration could cause a shortage of farm workers there. About 13 percent of all US farm workers are illegal immigrants.
Meanwhile, the near halt of US humanitarian aid to poor countries could put key food programmes at risk, raising fears of worsening food crises and hunger in Africa and the Middle East.
Crackdown on unhealthy food
Several countries are taking tough steps against unhealthy diets. Italy and Indonesia will impose new taxes on sugary drinks. The United Kingdom will ban television advertising of food high in fat, salt and sugar. In the United States, large food companies including Nestle have moved to cut the use of artificial colours.
2026 will also be an important year for environmental protection. New rules will take effect in the European Union requiring importers of farm products, from cocoa beans to palm oil, to prove they are not linked to recent deforestation. Agriculture is responsible for a large share of global deforestation, and the EU also plays a part in it through international trade.
Overall, analysts believe that while prices in world food markets will offer relief in 2026, new challenges may emerge in three areas: labour, humanitarian aid and the environment.
Source cited: The Economist.
Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.
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