The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan, two days later than the normal date, marking the beginning of the end of the four-month June-September rainy season, the Financial Express reported. Conditions favour further withdrawal from more of Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kutch over the next three to four days, the department said, with complete withdrawal from the country expected by 15 October, a few days before the northeast monsoon sets in over peninsular India.

Rainfall between 1 June and 19 September was 14.9% below the long-period average (LPA), in the "deficient" category, and the season is likely to end as the driest since 2009. Previous deficient seasons were 2002 (-20.9%), 2009 (-18.3%), 2015 (-12.7%) and 2014 (-10.15%). The IMD has also signalled a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions through the remainder of the season.

The season began on 4 June over Kerala, lost momentum, then regained pace to cover the whole country by 9 July. June rainfall was 36% below the LPA; July recovered to 1% above, within the normal range, which sped up kharif sowing; August was uneven at 16.3% below, with every region except the central monsoon core zone deficient; and September has been forecast as below normal, under 91% of the benchmark.

Regionally, central India has had normal rainfall so far, while northwest India (-9.2%), east and northeast India (-25.7%) and south peninsular India (-28.5%) are below normal.

Kharif sowing, which lagged until the end of June, picked up in July and August. Total acreage so far is about 1.45% below last year and 0.72% below the normal area, defined as the average sown over the past five years.

The IMD had already lowered its June-September forecast in May to 90% of the LPA from 92% in April, placing the season in the below-normal category, with an 84% probability of rainfall in the deficient-to-below-normal range. The department classifies 96-104% of the LPA as normal, 90-95% as below normal, under 90% as deficient and 105-110% as above normal.

Reported by Sandip Das for the Financial Express.

Source: Financial Express