Hundreds of hectares of Hawke's Bay vineyards will be pulled out this year, and nobody can say what the land will be used for next or what it is worth. Water is the reason: consenting in the region has been on hold for years while the Hawke's Bay Regional Council's TANK Plan Change, which would cut allocations, works its way through the courts.

Leith Ashworth, whose Ash Ridge winery sits in the Bridge Pa Triangle, has watched 30 hectares of vines on his boundaries come out. His own business has grown by planting diverse varieties and selling domestically through its wine club, tastings, events and cellar door, but "every week you hear about another winery shutting down, or moving out of the region". Last week the 30-year-old Sileni winery announced its closure.

Under TANK, Ash Ridge was offered half its existing water allocation. Vines are the lowest water users on the Plains, Ashworth said, which locks the land into viticulture: "What else is this land suitable for, other than vineyard?"

The market agrees. Colliers Rural Hawke's Bay director Hadley Brown said recent vineyard sales have been well below rateable value and in line with pastoral land; he sold two Vinarchy vineyards slated for land-use change, and a 30.7 hectare vineyard on Aorangi Road, Maraekakaho, with a $2.8 million rateable value went at auction in July for $800,000.

With Wattie's and McCain pulling back, cropping land on the Plains is also looking for a new use, but AgFirst horticulture consultant Sarah McArley said water security is the first thing an investor in apples or kiwifruit weighs, and new permanent horticulture needs heavy capital and a long payback; while the uncertainty lasts she sees no opportunity for land-use change within horticulture.

The Heretaunga aquifer was long assumed to be plentiful and consents were granted freely; science now says it is depleted and the gap between supply and demand will widen. Growers say TANK's cuts would make many businesses unviable, with modelling putting a worst case at $4 billion to the local economy, in a catchment that produces 80 per cent of the region's GDP. Council chair Sophie Siers said TANK sits alongside natural and managed aquifer recharge, fixing leaking town pipes and recycling wastewater under the Regional Water Plan. This is the first part of Farmers Weekly's two-part special report on the Plains.

Source: Farmers Weekly NZ