The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have urged countries across Eastern Africa to strengthen preparedness and surveillance, as heavy rain and flooding linked to El Niño raise the risk of Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks.
RVF is an acute viral disease of sheep, goats, cattle, buffaloes and camels that can also infect people. Mosquitoes spread it, the movement of infected animals carries it further, and people can catch it through direct contact with infected animals or animal products. Flooding widens mosquito breeding sites and can disrupt veterinary services. FAO says current El Niño conditions, approaching record strength, are comparable to 1997-98, when one of the largest recorded RVF epidemics hit Eastern Africa.
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda are assessed as facing the highest risk. Risk is also rising in Burundi and Rwanda, with lower but growing risk in the Comoros, northern Madagascar, Mayotte, south-western Saudi Arabia and western Yemen.
The heaviest rain is forecast for southern Ethiopia, Kenya and central and southern Somalia, where there is a more than 90 percent chance of over 400 mm. FAO's RVF Early Warning Decision Support Tool, which combines satellite data, climate forecasts and disease surveillance to flag high-risk areas up to three months ahead, expects conditions suitable for transmission to spread across much of the region between October 2026 and January 2027. Tanzania currently has the largest suitable area, followed by Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan and southern Sudan.
FAO and IGAD are asking affected countries to strengthen risk-based surveillance, pre-position vaccines and essential supplies, and coordinate across sectors and borders through a One Health approach. The alert comes through FAO-EMPRES, the global early warning system for animal health that FAO has run for more than 30 years.
For herders, the warning means watching for disease in animals after the rains and vaccinating before outbreaks, since wet conditions and livestock movement together make an outbreak harder to contain.
Source: FAO Newsroom
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