Agricultural economists meeting in Kansas City on 22 September cautioned against banning US diesel exports to bring fuel prices down, and USDA's chief economist suggested farmers are not asking for more ad-hoc aid, DTN reports.

Diesel reached a record retail average of $6.52 a gallon that day, according to AAA. "This is a significant line item in the cost of production and growing," said USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez, who linked tight supplies to the conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Russian refineries. The US exports roughly 25% of its refined diesel, and President Donald Trump said he has called for a ban with a decision coming soon.

"Economically speaking, export bans are difficult to enforce," Benavidez said. Krista Swanson, chief economist of the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), warned that a ban might not bring prices down and could invite retaliation against US farm products, while former USDA chief economist Scott Meyer said such measures tend to linger after the need has passed.

A joint NCGA and American Soybean Association (ASA) survey of more than 1,200 farmers found 46% more worried about their finances than a year ago, down from 65% last year, and 26% unsure how they will meet higher input costs for the 2027 crop. Most expect their corn and soybeans to be only marginally profitable or to break even. "If you owe a bunch of money with these input costs, it just doesn't work right now," said ASA chief economist Scott Gerlt.

On fertiliser, StoneX's Josh Linville dismissed the idea of cheap potash from landlocked Belarus, noting that 90% of US potash comes from Canada. Potash averages $495 a ton and anhydrous ammonia $945, more than 20% above last year. Benavidez said many producers want the safety-net programmes to work rather than new ad-hoc payments; Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage payments for 2025 crops, due in October, are projected above $15 billion. The report was written by Chris Clayton.

Photo: Bob Nichols, USDA ARS / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)

Source: DTN / Progressive Farmer