Canadian wheat exports are running at a record pace early in the 2026-27 marketing year: an estimated 3.1 million tonnes left the country in the first six weeks, up 68 per cent from a year earlier, according to Canadian Grain Commission data cited by Manitoba Co-operator market analyst Phil Franz-Warkentin.

Most of what moved in August and early September came from last year's record 40.6-million-tonne crop, which left ending stocks of 6.6 million tonnes, up 2.4 million. Statistics Canada's 16 September estimate puts this year's crop 11 per cent lower at 36.1 million tonnes — spring wheat 26.5 million, durum 6.4 million — still the second largest on record.

Quality is now the big question after rain delayed the Prairie harvest. Domestic feed-wheat demand is usually about 3.5 million tonnes, but some analysts expect feed supplies of six to seven million tonnes this year, which would weigh on feed prices while widening premiums for high-quality, high-protein wheat.

Globally, the USDA puts world wheat output at 822.4 million tonnes, short of 844 million last season, with smaller crops in the US, the European Union, Australia and Argentina, and combined Russian and Ukrainian output steady at 114 million tonnes. Attacks on Black Sea infrastructure have put those countries' exports in question, and some Russian grain is expected to move through the Arctic port of Murmansk.

Minneapolis December spring wheat futures peaked at US$7.94 a bushel on 2 September before dipping below US$7.30 on 23 September, with support seen at US$7.20.

Photo: Parihav / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Source: Manitoba Co-operator