In the aman season of the 2023-24 fiscal year, Bangladesh produced more than 1.66 crore tonnes of rice. For the current fiscal year the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) set an aman target of 1.68 crore tonnes. But heavy rain and rising rivers in August and October 2024 caused unexpected floods that destroyed about 11 lakh tonnes of paddy. The two recent floods disrupted aman production, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) feared output could fall to 1.40 crore tonnes. The government has decided to import 5 lakh tonnes of rice.

Severe floods in the south of Bangladesh damaged about two lakh hectares of aman land. The worst-hit districts were Feni, Noakhali, Cumilla, Lakshmipur, Moulvibazar, Habiganj and Brahmanbaria. Then in early October, flash floods in Sherpur and Mymensingh damaged about one lakh hectares of aman fields. In all, the cultivated area fell by about 2.5 lakh hectares this time, and aman output may fall to 1.40 crore tonnes.

From 16 to 30 August, the worst floods in memory, caused by water from upstream and continuous heavy rain, hit 23 districts: Narayanganj, Munshiganj, Narsingdi, Kishoreganj, Cumilla, Brahmanbaria, Chandpur, Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Sunamganj, Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, Noakhali, Feni, Lakshmipur, Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Natore, Khulna, Narail, Bagerhat and Jashore. According to the agriculture ministry's damage estimate, crops with a production target of 9,86,214 tonnes, including aus and aman paddy, vegetables, ginger, turmeric, fruit orchards, chilli, betel leaf, watermelon, papaya and tomato, were completely destroyed. Rice production suffered the most.

Agricultural economists say the aman target was not met because of the floods, and late planting in many areas lowered output. In their view, total production this time could not exceed 1.57 crore tonnes. Government officials, however, say output has not fallen as far as the USDA feared. Senior DAE officials say aman production fell somewhat because of the floods, but not to the extent the USDA predicted; yields were good, and what was lost can be made up in the coming boro season.

The government plans to produce 2.26 crore tonnes of boro rice from 50.70 lakh hectares this year. To get the best output, the DAE is encouraging farmers to grow high-yielding varieties such as BRRI-29. The DAE said: "We are advising farmers to grow various mega varieties such as BR-89, 92 and BR-102 so that they can get a significant yield." Under the target, hybrid rice will be grown on 14,94,920 hectares, high-yielding varieties on 35,61,012 hectares and local varieties on 13,500 hectares.

Speaking about overall stocks of urea and non-urea fertiliser before the boro season, Md Aminul Islam, deputy director (fertiliser management) of the DAE, said there was enough fertiliser in the country for boro. For boro and other winter crops from January to March, the government holds 11,04,908 tonnes of urea, 2,35,765 tonnes of triple super phosphate (TSP), 4,80,459 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 2,56,023 tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP). Last year, 2.10 crore tonnes of boro was produced on 48 lakh hectares.

To secure this season's boro output, farmers, agriculturists and the authorities concerned, as well as the government, need to take several important steps:

• Ensure supply of high-yielding (HYV) and disease-resistant seed; promote disaster-tolerant varieties such as BRRI dhan81 and BRRI dhan89; train farmers in seed storage and management.
• Keep irrigation canals and deep tubewells running for adequate water; use groundwater properly and stop waste; apply modern irrigation such as alternate wetting and drying (AWD).
• Ensure supply of urea, TSP, MOP and zinc; control fertiliser prices so farmers can get it easily; take the necessary measures against pests and diseases.
• Get early flood and drought forecasts to farmers; grow alternative boro varieties in flood- and cyclone-prone areas; transplant seedlings at the right time to escape cold waves.
• Provide farm loans on easy terms for small and medium farmers; give compensation and incentives to farmers hit by disasters; provide government subsidies and free farm inputs to raise output.
• Run training on modern farming methods; give advice through the DAE using digital technology; ensure soil health testing and fertiliser use at the right dose.
• Set a government purchase price and buy paddy directly from farmers; curb middlemen and give farmers direct access to markets; build enough warehouses and cold storage for farm produce.

If these steps are carried out, there is a good chance of strong rice production this boro season. Coordinated efforts by farmers, the government and the agencies concerned are the key to raising output.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.