Although the contribution of the broad agriculture sector (crops, fisheries and livestock, and forestry) to gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen, agriculture is still the main lifeblood of Bangladesh's economy. As with other sectors, those in agriculture have somewhat higher expectations of the coming budget. They want a non-discriminatory budget that gives the sector priority.

Agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam Khan, vice-chancellor of the University of Global Village (UGV), believes a specific growth target needs to be set for agriculture, and that allocations and subsidies for the sector as a whole must rise. He spoke to Jagonews about this year's budget. The interview was conducted by Nazmul Husain.

Jagonews: For several years a similar agriculture budget has been presented, without much development. What changes do you think are needed?

Jahangir Alam Khan: Look, the budgets after independence set a growth rate for agriculture, deciding what goal the sector would move towards, just as the national budget has a target for GDP growth. For the past 15-20 years agricultural growth has not been mentioned, because it could not be achieved. But to move forward, a specific target is needed.

The current Eighth Five-Year Plan had a 4 per cent growth target for agriculture, which was not met; growth was 3.2 per cent. But if we want to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we need self-sufficiency in food and nutrition, and there is not much time left. Taking everything into account, the first task in this budget is to set a growth target for agriculture of at least 4 to 5 per cent.

Jagonews: Should reducing food inflation be a priority in the agriculture budget?

Jahangir Alam Khan: The main reason for the current food inflation is a fall in farm production, so production must rise to bring inflation down. Last July inflation exceeded 14 per cent, because production was low owing to severe drought and natural causes. Then when the rabi crops were produced, it fell below 10 per cent. When production is good, food inflation falls.

In the same period inflation also rose sharply in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but they brought it under control, down to near zero. We could not do as well. In a poor country like Bangladesh inflation should come down to between 3 and 2 per cent. The only tool for that is raising production, which is why budget allocations must rise.

Jagonews: How much should be allocated to agriculture in the budget?

Jahangir Alam Khan: The size of the overall budget keeps growing. Counting from FY2011-12, the total budget has grown 4.87 times by now (FY2024-25), but agriculture's allocation has not grown in step: it has risen 3.78 times over the same period. In 2011-12 the agriculture budget was 10.65 per cent of the total; it has now fallen to just 5.94 per cent.

This shows that even as the overall budget grows, the agriculture budget is shrinking. In this budget, agriculture's allocation should be more than 10 per cent of the total.

Jagonews: The interim government is expected to cut spending on subsidies and incentives under domestic and global economic pressures. What problems will a cut in farm subsidies cause?

Jahangir Alam Khan: Look at the figures I mentioned. In FY2011-12 subsidies were 6.4 per cent of the total budget; now they are just 2.16 per cent. In the current budget (2024-25), subsidies were cut by Tk 17,261 crore compared with the previous year's budget. That cut has reduced production growth. Cutting farm subsidies is not desirable in any way. Rather, they should be raised to at least 5 per cent.

Jagonews: Which areas need attention in allocations?

Jahangir Alam Khan: Investment in agricultural research, extension and inputs must rise. In addition, when farmers do not get a price for their crops, price support must be given. Without a price, farmers will lose interest in successful production.

Jagonews: Climate change is causing a lot of damage to agriculture. Does the budget need to reflect this?

Jahangir Alam Khan: Bangladesh is caught up in disasters such as cold waves, heatwaves, floods and cyclones all year round. Climate change has become a challenge to increasing farm production in Bangladesh, especially in the crop sub-sector, and it is agriculture that its blows hurt the most. There is a separate allocation for this in the budget, of which only 4-5 per cent is spent on agriculture. But 40 per cent of that allocation should go to agriculture.

Jagonews: What must be done to increase domestic and foreign investment in the sector?

Jahangir Alam Khan: The biggest issue in the budget is where you allocate how much money. The government can never curb inflation by allocating to unproductive sectors. Since ancient times agriculture has been the best productive sector, yet investment in it keeps falling. This reverse trend must be stopped, and public and private investment must be supported to grow.

Jagonews: What steps are needed on farm exports?

Jahangir Alam Khan: The government used to give quite good cash support for farm exports. It has gradually fallen to 10 per cent for some products. But there is scope to continue a large incentive if it wants. Without support, exporters' competitiveness will come under pressure and we will not be able to compete with rivals abroad. Besides, if exports fall, it becomes hard to ensure fair prices for many products.

At the same time, exporters and producers must be helped to adopt good agricultural practices, better packaging and more diverse products. Cargo space must be ensured and freight charges reduced so that they can get products abroad properly and at low cost. The government should have the will to do these things.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.