"I haven't been able to eat hilsa yet this year. The market price is high. On top of that, the government has decided to export it to India. I thought prices would come down. Now there's no hope of eating it at all."

Government employee Monir Hossain said this at Segunbagicha market on the evening of 8 September, after the decision that afternoon to export 1,200 tonnes of hilsa to India.

A little further away, at Shantinagar market, another shopper, Moyna Akter, a domestic worker, was hovering around the hilsa stalls. Asked whether she would buy, she said, "Not only this year: in the four years since I came to Dhaka, I've never been able to buy hilsa. I've eaten it a few times because the family I work for gave me some."

Moyna did not know about the export to India. But she said, "My children really want to eat it, but I can't buy it; with these prices I don't dare. We still can't afford to eat hilsa, brother."

Because of the excessive prices, middle-class as well as low-income people are struggling to buy hilsa. A one-kilo hilsa sells for over Tk 2,500, a price never seen before. It is in this situation that the government has decided to export hilsa to India for the coming Durga Puja; the Ministry of Commerce issued the order on 8 September.

The price rise is not just a recent trend; hilsa has been expensive since the start of the season. People involved believe the export decision will push prices up further. Prices in the markets of West Bengal in India are comparatively lower, yet Bangladesh is exporting hilsa, as every year, at the demand of that country's traders' association.

"Hilsa prices really are abnormal this time. This country has plenty of hilsa, yet such prices are unacceptable," Bangladeshi hilsa expert Anisur Rahman told Jagonews.

"I think it would have been better not to decide to export hilsa now. The understanding on hilsa was export or anything else after meeting domestic demand. But this time prices cannot be brought down by any means, and there is still not enough fish," he said.

"The peak hilsa season, September to November, has begun. There is a full moon now, and some hilsa will come. But it is doubtful how good production will be this time, because hilsa are declining due to changing weather, pollution, falling river navigability and a lack of enough food for fish in the rivers," Anisur Rahman said.

"Buyers and sellers alike are angry about hilsa prices at the height of the season. We cannot afford to eat it ourselves at these prices. If it is exported on top of this, traders will raise prices further. The government should have ensured availability for ordinary people," S M Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the consumer rights group Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), told Jagonews.

The Ministry of Commerce has set the minimum export price this time at $12.5 a kg, or Tk 1,525 (at Tk 122 to the dollar). But a one-kilo hilsa cannot be had at that price in Dhaka's markets.

A visit to the markets on 8 September found one-kilo hilsa at Tk 2,500, with sellers asking more than Tk 3,000 for larger fish. At superstores, one-kilo hilsa cost roughly Tk 2,400-2,800 a kg.

In the retail markets, depending on whether the fish came from the sea or rivers, hilsa just under a kilo or around 800 grams sold for Tk 1,800 a kg, and those near 600 grams for Tk 1,400-1,500. Even hilsa of 400 grams or less cost over a thousand taka a kg.

So the average price per kilo comes to nearly Tk 2,000.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), hilsa prices this year are Tk 900 to Tk 2,200, compared with Tk 800 to Tk 1,600 last year.

According to CAB, in the peak season of 2014 the average price of hilsa weighing 500-1,000 grams was Tk 505; it is now several times higher.

After a decade of steady growth, the hilsa catch has fallen since last year. Recent Department of Fisheries data show the catch fell by 42,000 tonnes in the 2023-24 financial year, and this year's catch has been low from the start.

According to the Department of Fisheries, the country caught 5,71,000 tonnes of hilsa in 2022-23 and 5,29,000 tonnes last financial year, a fall of 42,000 tonnes. There are fears the catch may fall for a second year in a row.

Department of Fisheries sources say total hilsa production was 2,98,000 tonnes in 2008-09 and nearly doubled to 5,17,000 tonnes in 2017-18, though production has fallen recently. The department says 5,29,000 tonnes were caught in the country's rivers and sea in 2023-24, against 5,71,000 tonnes in 2022-23. The 2024-25 financial year figures have not yet been compiled, but production is expected to fall this year too.

Though the export permission is viewed negatively, one welcome point is that the amount has been cut from last year. Last year (2024), for Durga Puja, the Ministry of Commerce first decided to allow 3,000 tonnes of hilsa to be exported to India, then backed away and finally allowed 2,420 tonnes. This time half that amount has been allowed. Last year permission went to 49 firms in total.

The conditions remain that no more than the approved amount may be exported, permits may not be transferred in any way, and exports may not be subcontracted to anyone other than approved exporters. The government can stop exports at any time. These conditions always apply.

An official of the Ministry of Commerce, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "The approved amount has been reduced this time because of high prices at home and fears of lower production. The Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock has consented to the export."

The National Export Policy (2015-18), published on 6 September 2015, put hilsa on the list of products exportable subject to conditions. But the first permission to export hilsa was given in 2019, when three consignments were sent to India.

According to the National Board of Revenue (NBR), 476 tonnes of hilsa were exported to India in 2019-20, 1,699 tonnes in 2020-21, 1,230 tonnes in 2021-22, 1,391 tonnes in 2022-23 and 802 tonnes in 2023-24.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.