The ongoing flood has already damaged crops on 22,000 hectares in Sylhet. In the neighbouring districts of Sunamganj and Habiganj, paddy on another 28,000 hectares has been damaged. In the north, crops on 56,000 hectares have been reported damaged so far in several districts including Kurigram and Nilphamari. Most of this farmland is now under water.

New areas are still being flooded every day, so crop losses are almost certain to rise. If the flood lasts long, Aus and Aman cultivation will be hit, with a negative effect on overall food production.

Beyond cropland, the losses in fish and livestock are large. Up to 19 June, 67,610 fish farms in 93 upazilas of 15 districts in five divisions had been flooded, washing away at least 16,582 tonnes of fish. Fish farmers have lost Tk 160 crore 42 lakh, and the figure will rise once Monday's and Tuesday's data are counted.

So far, 15,060 cattle farms in 316 unions of 74 upazilas in 12 districts have been damaged, with estimated losses of Tk 261 crore 83 lakh to farmers.

Altogether, the flood is a major worry for agriculture as for other sectors. Although full data are not yet available, damage from this flood is feared to exceed that of the 1998 flood, which could have a big effect on the country's overall food production.

Agriculture Minister Dr Md Abdur Razzaque does not fully agree that grain production will be badly affected. Since there is no major crop in the field at this time, he said, the flood will have little effect and there is no risk of a food shortage. Rice will not be affected, though vegetable output will fall somewhat.

"When the flood began there were hardly any crops in the field," the minister said. "Aman seedbeds have not yet been prepared. Aus paddy has suffered some damage, but Aus is grown on high land. If the flood does not rise further, there will be no loss at the present level."

There is no preliminary estimate of vegetable losses. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) says vegetables currently stand on 3.87 lakh hectares nationwide, of which five to six thousand hectares have been damaged so far. The summer crops of sesame and groundnut suffered most, and chillies were ruined in some areas.

Whatever the preliminary figures say, people in flood-hit areas believe the losses are greater. Most crop fields in the north-east remain under water, and fish farms, cowsheds and vegetable fields have been submerged. They believe the real losses in Sylhet, Sunamganj and Netrokona will be higher than the preliminary estimates.

Sunamganj upazila agriculture officer Salah Uddin Tipu said 15,000 hectares of Aus fields had gone under water in that district alone, and seven to eight thousand hectares of vegetables were submerged. Aus will suffer heavily, he said, and if the water is slow to recede Aman will also be hit, because the time for Aman seedbeds is running out and the flood makes it impossible to prepare them.

Sylhet District Livestock Officer Dr Md Rustam Ali said the situation in Sylhet was so bad that not only farms had been damaged but many animals were dying. He had learnt that 373 cows had died so far. With communications cut, accurate information was not coming in, and the financial loss could not be assessed while the water remained. Heavy losses are feared, he said.

If the flood's effects spread from Aus to Aman, it would be a serious threat to food security. Boro is the country's biggest rice crop, providing about half of all rice. Every year Boro is grown on 48 to 49 lakh hectares, Aman on 57 to 58 lakh hectares and Aus on 12 to 13 lakh hectares. Damage to both Aus and Aman would disrupt overall food production.

DAE Director General Md Benzir Alam said that although Aus had been damaged, there was no risk yet to Aman, because there is still time to prepare Aman seedbeds. Where Aus is badly damaged, seed of early Aman varieties will be supplied.

He said the national Aus target had been set at 13 lakh 9 thousand hectares, but cultivation would reach up to 12 lakh hectares, and Aus could still be planted for a few more days. The Aman target is 59 lakh hectares. Seedbed preparation has begun in some areas, and in flooded areas seedbeds will be arranged after the flood.

Meanwhile, the flood situation in the north and north-east is slowly improving, but flooding is spreading into central areas. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) said on 21 June that Shariatpur, Faridpur and Rajbari in the central region could be flooded within 24 hours.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.