August closed an exceptionally hot summer across much of the United States, and September brings the next development for farmers and ranchers to watch: a rapidly strengthening El Niño. August 2026 tied the record for the hottest month ever measured globally, matching July 2023, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service data cited by AccuWeather; the global average surface air temperature reached 62.5°F.

The heat was sharpest in the West. Utah, Colorado and New Mexico recorded their hottest summers in 132 years of records and Arizona tied its warmest, with temperatures across those states more than 5°F above historical averages. Producers there enter September's harvest, fall grazing and winter-wheat planting with soil moisture, pasture, wheat establishment and water supplies all in question.

AccuWeather says it is near 100% certain that a "Super El Niño" will occur, with Pacific water temperatures potentially the warmest measured during any El Niño event; it is not expected to peak until December or early January 2027, so its atmospheric effects will keep developing through the autumn. El Niño forms when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warms unusually, shifting storm tracks and where rain and snow fall. It is building on top of record warmth: average sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions were the highest for any August on record.

"What stands out is how widespread and persistent the warmth has been, from the atmosphere to the oceans," said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Tyler Roys. "Now we're seeing a rapidly strengthening El Niño developing on top of that unusually warm global background. That combination could have significant implications for weather patterns around the world through the fall and winter."

Not every farm will see a textbook El Niño winter, but seasonal forecasts are beginning to favour wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States and drier ones across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Extra rain over the drought-hit South-west and southern Plains could help rangeland, winter wheat and water supplies, and extra mountain snow could rebuild snowpack for 2027 irrigation; too much moisture at the wrong time, though, complicates harvest and fieldwork and brings mud and cold stress for livestock, while the northern Plains face the opposite worry if the dry signal holds.

Globally, 2026 was already the second-hottest year on record through August, behind 2024, and the strengthening El Niño could push temperatures higher in the final months. "In many ways, this story is just getting started," Roys said.

Source: AGDAILY